Typhoon, earthquake... The scary fact that the more disasters you experience, the more risk-averse you become
Hello, this is Kaoyama.
Earthquakes, typhoons, heavy rains.
Japan is a disaster-prone country to the point of making you hate it.
This year as well there have been exceptionally powerful
typhoons that occurred multiple times.
In the city center, planned train suspensions were implemented, but
if you think about it, a generation ago
there was no such thing as trains stopping according to a plan in advance.
The fact that measures like this have become possible
seems to symbolize that the power of typhoons has increased compared to the past.
I have also heard the idea that
“rising sea surface temperatures may be intensifying typhoon strength.”
If that’s the reason or not,
than in the past,
we can feel that the natural environment is changing.
Enough already,
I wish typhoon season would end as well…
Sure enough, once November arrives,
I think the chances of a typhoon landing that would cause immense damage are
almost none, but
we cannot say absolutely never.
In fact, last November 2018,
three typhoons occurred.
Also, besides typhoons, there can be abnormal weather with
sudden heavy rain and strong winds.
Furthermore, in addition to typhoons and heavy rains,
earthquakes could happen anywhere at any time.
As is often said, within the next 30 years
the Nankai Trough earthquake is expected to occur at a probability of 70–80%,
according to estimates.
So, as long as you live in Japan,
you should prepare as much as possible to cope with any disaster that may happen at any time.
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Practical tips for when you become a homebound refugee
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Now, regarding disasters,
what should you prepare?
In addition to preparing disaster supplies,
it is also important to
“prepare practical knowledge that will be useful in an emergency.”
Small tips and ideas can
save you.
For example, the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department Disaster Countermeasures Division's Twitter account
has published practical tips that are useful in emergencies.
https://twitter.com/mpd_bousai?lang=ja
It’s a popular account with around 800,000 followers.
Recently, information tweeted on Twitter has been
summarized into books that have been released,
so reading those might also be good.
There are site pages that summarize the tweets as well.
https://www.keishicho.metro.tokyo.jp/kurashi/saigai/yakudachi/index.html
For reference, I’ll introduce a portion of what is tweeted.
For example, ‘How to make heavy things feel lighter’
In some scenarios like earthquakes where trains stop abruptly and taxis are scarce, causing you to become a homebound refugee and have to walk tens of kilometers home,
the luggage can gradually drain your physical strength.
Even with a lighter load, walking tens of kilometers becomes a heavy burden.
If you can reduce even a little weight,
that would be wonderful.
In fact, even with the same weight of luggage,
how you pack and carry it can make it feel lighter.
The method is
“Pack the heavier items toward the upper back, and the lighter items toward the lower outside.”
This is the idea.
(Source
https://www.keishicho.metro.tokyo.jp/kurashi/saigai/yakudachi/mamechishiki/1009569114124251136.html）
Actually, having heavier items toward the top makes things feel lighter.
Moreover, this principle applies not only when carrying with a backpack but also when carrying items with both hands.
When carrying heavy and light items, placing the lighter ones below and stacking the heavier ones on top makes them feel lighter.
This is something you can apply in everyday carrying of items.
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When hands are cold, send blood
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One more to introduce.
As it gets cold,
during disasters, in the extreme cold,
there may be times when you have to stay outside for a long period.
Your fingertips may freeze and go numb.
That’s when this tip helps.
If the fingertips lose sensation from the cold,
you should shake your hands.
Swinging your arms vigorously from the shoulders
causes centrifugal force to send “warm blood from your trunk”
to your fingertips.
(Source
https://www.keishicho.metro.tokyo.jp/kurashi/saigai/yakudachi/mamechishiki/1090020344079933441.html）
When your fingertips are unbearably cold, please try it.
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Psychological reasons why risk preference increases with disaster experience
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If you usually anticipate every possible situation,
by storing disaster supplies and wisdom in advance,
it helps when the time comes, but
“Why do people tend to act in riskier ways after experiencing disasters?”
This psychological tendency is very important to understand.
During disasters, what kind of actions you choose can be a matter of life and death,
so knowing this tendency is crucial.
So today, finally,
I’ll introduce one psychological tendency related to disasters.
Typhoons, heavy rain, earthquakes,
you may have experienced some disaster,
but
“the more disasters you experience, the more likely you are to choose high-risk actions.”
That’s the tendency.
Normally, you might think,
“People who have experienced disasters and felt fear become more cautious, right?”
but it’s the opposite.
Why?
Here’s the reason.
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“In trials for safety, when you do the one thing that is most correct, you gain no reward or pleasure;
on the other hand, when you do something wrong, you gain reward or pleasure,
which is the reverse mechanism.”
Naotani Kazuya
From ‘Disaster Risk Psychology’ (Maruzen Publishing Co.)
September 1, 2018
P.43
Do you understand what this means?
For example, when preparing for typhoons,
you stock up on food and water,
reinforce windows to prevent breaking glass,
and install shutters.
From the safety standpoint, that’s a prudent decision.
However, with typhoons,
there are times when things turn out less severe than expected.
The trajectory may deviate,
or the area you live in may be hardly affected,
which happens often.
Then all the thorough preparations become wasteful.
Furthermore, after the typhoon passes, removing the window reinforcements and other unnecessary efforts may cost extra labor.
Ideally, it’s good if risk preparation is not wasted,
but when that happens,
people regret, saying, “Oh, I shouldn’t have prepared this much.”
That is human nature.
Even with proper preparations,
you may feel like you’re interfering with things and
that you’re doing something wrong.
On the other hand, if you do not prepare against crises,
and the typhoon’s damage turns out not to be severe,
you avoid extra labor and costs, and you feel a sense of satisfaction,
thinking, “Ah, I didn’t need to prepare at all, my decision was correct.”
In this way, many times not preparing for crises brings more satisfaction,
and as a result, after accumulating experiences of relatively little disaster, you tend to stop preparing and lean toward high-risk behaviors.
This psychological tendency is instinctual,
so please don’t think of it as someone else’s problem; you should be careful too.
Even if it ends up wasteful, do not choose actions that increase risk.
By the way, in the financial world, for the same reason,
there are people who take increasingly high-risk trades, so please be careful.
For example, if you hold an insurance position,
it might become a liability in a drawdown and become a hindrance,
but
if that is part of proper risk management,
you must hold the insurance position despite the hindrance.
Disasters and financial markets both require proper risk management to survive.
So, thank you for watching until the end today as well.
Keizo Shimozawa
