【FujiTomii】Tokyo Gold extends small gain

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products on the 28th were briefly down in after-hours trading, but then sharply rebounded from the lows. Crude oil futures August contract rose 750 yen to 34,780 yen, gasoline futures October contract rose 690 yen to 47,810 yen, and kerosene futures October contract rose 850 yen to 45,850 yen.
The Tokyo oil market rebounded supported by a weakening yen and a recovery in overseas crude. Although crude futures briefly fell below 34,000 yen in after-hours trading, the subsequent yen depreciation and the rebound in overseas crude were favorable, leading to a broad rebound. In the daytime trading, activity showed a tendency to push the crude futures around 34,600 yen. There was little aggressive trading, with many preferring to wait for the US API inventory statistics to be released tomorrow morning to gauge the market before taking positions. After noon, the Tokyo oil market saw somewhat forceful buying, pushing the highs higher. The gains were amplified by the higher moves in NY oil products, with Tokyo oil products also rising and crude following suit. In the 14:00 hour, WTI recovered to the 48-dollar range, suggesting further upside for the Tokyo oil market.

（Tokyo precious metals）
Tokyo gold rose slightly on the 28th. Gold futures February contract rose 2 yen to 4,446 yen, and platinum futures February contract fell 1 yen to 3,440 yen.
The yen’s weakness is favorable for Tokyo gold, supporting its continued rise. NY gold made new highs but then fell from the 1260-dollar level as the stock market recovered. The rise in NY gold paused, while the yen’s weakness kept Tokyo gold rising. In daytime trading, the range was narrow, fluctuating within a tight box around 4,450 yen. NY gold hit a high of 1,264.2 dollars for the near-month June contract, but after reopening, traded around 1,250 dollars. While viewed as a correction, the market expected potential uncertainty in the second quarter to sustain NY gold’s bullish tone, so the long position remained.

（Tokyo Rubber）
Tokyo rubber rebounded sharply on the 28th. August futures rose 3.4 yen to 240.9 yen.
Tokyo rubber began with a gradual decline as the new Sep contract launched, continuing a backwardation. In the face of continued backwardation, selling to switch to the near month was lackluster, and the swift rebound appeared less an adjustment to the previous day's sharp drop than a lack of sellers. The bearish traders seem to be aiming to sell the Sep contract above 240 yen. The near-month futures tried several times to break above 240 yen but failed. Nevertheless, it remained at a high level, with overnight gains anticipated. After around 14:30, the gains narrowed and near-month futures settled in the 237 yen range.

（Tokyo Corn）
Tokyo corn on the 28th did not retreat into a correction but rose, with March futures up 110 yen to 216,30 yen.
In Tokyo, despite the yen’s appreciation, persistent buying pressure supported the market. Chicago showed small gains, and early in the session, the yen’s depreciation supported a rebound in Tokyo. Even with the gradual yen depreciation, compared to late Friday’s levels in after-hours trading, the value was still notably higher in the morning, which made the early rebound aggressive. As Chicago reopened, solid buying continued. In the 10:00 hour, the yen turned higher again, but as in the previous day, weak news did not trigger responses, keeping the price in a relatively elevated position. By noon, prices moved above 21,700 yen. By the close, the gains narrowed but stayed above expensive levels.

（Tokyo U.S. soybeans）
Tokyo soybeans generally fell slightly on the 28th. February futures contract fell 90 yen to 47,470 yen.
Chicago continued to slide, but the yen’s depreciation paused, bringing the Tokyo market down only temporarily. The previous day’s drop in the large-board futures was followed by a reactionary decline driven by the sharp yen rise and Chicago’s plunge, though the downside remains premature. It is expected to see further sharp declines toward month-end.
https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=14024