[Fujitomi] NY gold climbs sharply, reaching a one-month high for the first time in a month

（NY precious metals）
On the 27th, New York gold continued to rise, signaling a one-month high. The near-month NY gold June contract was up $7.1 from the previous close at $1,255.7, and the near-month NY platinum July contract was up $1.2 at $969.0.
At the beginning of the week, as U.S. stock futures tumbled more than $100, the dollar weakened further, and NY gold surged into the $1,260 range. It updated the previous week's high, making the continuation of the bullish trend even clearer. Meanwhile, palladium, which had surged late last week on expectations of increased U.S. demand, has fallen sharply. While platinum had followed gold higher, the palladium price collapse made the market perception unfavorable, erasing much of the earlier gains from the high. NY gold afterward showed a breach below $1,260, but the strong demand-driven buying to hedge risk for Q2 remained persistent, with expectations to test the 200-day moving average.

（WTI Crude Oil, NY Product, North Sea Brent）
On the 27th, WTI crude fell back, but the drop was narrowed by the continued rise in oil products. WTI near-month May contract was down $0.24 at $47.73, and North Sea Brent near-month May contract was down $0.05 at $50.75. RB0B gasoline May contract rose 1.09 cents to 162.63 cents, and NY heating oil near-month May contract rose 0.46 cents to 150.85 cents.
Over the weekend, the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee was to discuss extending production cuts for another six months, which could have led to a further extension, but was postponed as premature. Except for Venezuela, participating countries were perceived as resistant to cuts, so even if a recommendation were made, it would lack persuasive force. With disappointment selling emerging, the weak U.S. oil rig count released over the weekend added to selling pressure, and WTI near-month May contract fell to as low as $47.08. However, it did not break below the prior week's low of $47.01, and later narrowed its losses aided by a rebound in oil products. The environment around oil remains tough, and there is still weak confidence in a test of the low. NY gasoline, considering the demand season, is showing signs of buying the spread again.

（CBOT Soybeans）
On the 27th, CBOT soybeans continued to fall, with near-month months dropping from the latest. The near-term May contract was down 4.75 cents at 971.00 cents, and the new-crop November contract was down 6.75 cents at 970.25 cents.
The average forecast for the planted area from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, released at the end of the month, was published by Reuters. The forecast average was 88.214 million acres, higher than the 88.00 million acres shown at the February USDA Agricultural Forum. Last year’s actual was 83.433 million acres, so the forum’s numbers raised questions about a much weaker-than-expected average. The projected average for all U.S. stocks was 1.684 billion bushels, above the previous year's 1.531 billion bushels. This more cautious outlook contributed to selling pressure on new-crop futures, leading to continued declines in Chicago soybeans at the start of the week.

（CBOT Corn）
On the 27th, CBOT corn closed slightly higher, moving from unchanged to a small gain. Near-term May contract was 356.25 cents, and new-crop December contract was up 0.50 cent at 380.00 cents.
In the Asian session through the European trading session, the market held firm. After last week’s straight decline, a rebound was expected. However, the weak planting intentions area and the Reuters-revealed preliminary estimates for U.S. stock levels pushed prices into negative territory. Although the session saw a breach of last week’s lows, buying into the close helped reduce losses. Reuters’ forecast for the planted area averaged 90.96 million acres, higher than the 90.00 million acres shown at the February USDA Agricultural Forum, which was seen by many as a bearish signal for corn. The forecast for U.S. total stocks was 858.34 million bushels, well above the previous year’s 782.20 million. With these bearish forecasts in place, Chicago soybeans faced continued declines into the early week, while a risk-off mood prevailed.
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