Early Summer 2018: Movements in the Complex Foreign Exchange Market [Jiro Ota]
Profile of Jiro Ota
Jiro Ota. FX Strategist. He began FX trading in 1979 at The First National Bank of Boston Tokyo Branch. Later he worked in corporate FX trading at Manufacturers Hanover Trust Bank, BHF Bank, National Westminster Bank, and ING Bank, then moved to retail FX, worked in sales at GFT Tokyo, later becoming a Market Strategist, and is currently active as an individual investor.
*This article is a reprint and editorial revision of an article from FX攻略.com July 2018 issue. Please note that the market information written in the main text may differ from current market conditions.
Trump Administration on the Eve of Midterm Elections
In financial institutions, people who buy and sell foreign exchange trades are called “dealers,” but many also refer to President Trump’s statements as all being “dales.” It is unclear whether intentional, but his often capricious remarks frequently cause sharp fluctuations in the forex market, and one might wonder if he had dedicated himself to FX trading, he could have made a fortune.
Almost a year and a half has passed since President Trump took office, and on November 6 the midterm elections will be held, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 seats in the Senate (out of 100) up for election. It is almost certain that the Trump administration will act with the midterm elections in mind.
Whether the administration can implement its promises—deregulation, tax reform, trade policy review, renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), tighter immigration controls, and construction of a wall on the Mexico border—will directly affect the Trump administration’s evaluation. The expectation of continued U.S. rate hikes remains strong due to the country’s “strong growth, solid labor market, improving wage growth, and stable inflation,” while concerns about political confrontation over trade imbalances also persist and have been one of the factors weighing on stock prices.
