The talk of the town! Trailing stop: the choice between explosive profits and stability. USD/JPY EA "Rhino_USDJPY"

Win-rate focus or risk-reward emphasisthat can be switched
A simple single-position, low-risk USDJPY-only EA

 

The forward test on the product page has been under way for about two months. Activity was low in early September, but since October it has begun to demonstrate its true value.

【Rhino_USDJPY Overview】

“Rhino_USDJPY” is a day-trading style USD/JPY-exclusive EA that uses a 1-hour chart.

The stop loss is 50, and it also supports early exit by internal logic.
Take profit is also 50, but in the win-rate mode described later, trailing functions cause the take-profit value to be released/unlocked.

・Two modes by turning on/off the trailing feature

Rhino_USDJPY can be divided into two modes by enabling/disabling the trailing feature in parameter settings.

「Win-rate mode」
⇒ With trailing enabled, the maximum take-profit value extends, allowing profits from larger price moves with solid gains.

「Profit mode」
⇒ With trailing disabled, the focus is on the risk-reward ratio (average win ÷ average loss). Since profits on wins exceed losses, drawdown is covered faster, leading to more stable performance.

【Backtest Analysis】

Rhino_USDJPY's performance changes between the two modes described above, so we examine each.
0.1 lot fixed, spread 10, backtest period from 2009 to October 2019 currently.

・Win-rate mode (Trailing stop on)

Net profit +¥449,000 (Annual average ¥40,000)
Maximum drawdown −¥40,000
Total trades 1,878 (Annual average 178)
Win rate 56.44%
PF 1.26

The recommended required margin with 0.1 lot fixed is
4.5 + (4*2) = 12.5 (ten-thousand yen)
Therefore, aiming for 130,000 yen or more seems safe.

The expected annual return in this case isabout 34.2%.

・Profit mode (Trailing stop off)

Net profit +¥413,000 (Annual average ¥39,000)
Maximum drawdown −¥50,000
Total trades 1,807 (Annual average 172)
Win rate 48.59%
PF 1.20

The recommended required margin with 0.1 lot fixed is
4.5 + (5*2) = 14.5 (ten-thousand yen)
Therefore, aiming for 150,000 yen or more seems safe.

The expected annual return in this case isabout 27.1%.

Compared by major items,

(Net profit and maximum drawdown values are in ten-thousand-yen units.)

Both modes have low maximum drawdowns and strong performance, but the win-rate mode is especially favorable in net profit and expected annual return. Profit mode shows a higher risk-reward ratio of 1.27, making it suitable for a stable operation with small losses and larger gains.
A win-rate mode with an expected annual return over 30% is attractive, but if you want to operate more safely over the long term, profit mode is also a candidate.

・Annual revenue

Overall trend is similar, but annual revenue in Profit mode is larger.

・Trade count / Holding time

Trade count does not vary much between modes.
However, holding time tends to be longer in Profit mode; more trades held for 18 hours or more.

【Trade Analysis】

We examine trades during the backtest period on the chart. We also compared the two modes here.

Blue: Long　 Red: Short

Case 1

In the same time frame, Win-rate mode makes two trades in the same period, while Profit mode yields profit with one trade.

Case 2

This is the profit scenario for a short position. As with Case 1, Win-rate mode tends to close quickly when instantaneous unrealized profit declines.
Trailing stop is active in Win-rate mode, so the stop-loss line is moved up (or down), leading to exits on subsequent pullbacks or retracements.

Case 3

In this case, a short position opened at the same time is held longer in Profit mode than in Win-rate mode, yielding more profit.
On the other hand, in later shorts there were instances of taking small profits and stopping out, and cases where holding longer resulted in a stop-out.

【In closing】

As shown, Rhino_USDJPY is a simple but reliably profitable EA with two modes of operation. The default setting is Win-rate mode with trailing stop on, so please switch modes according to your portfolio, environment, and backtest results.

Rhino_USDJPY