【Fuji Tomi】Tokyo oil market rebounds, attention focused on the formation of a bottom in overseas charts

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
On the 23rd, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products recovered, buoyed by a rebound in overseas crude and a weaker yen. The August futures for crude oil were up 340 yen at 34,910 yen, the September futures for gasoline were up 310 yen at 48,820 yen, and the September futures for kerosene were up 380 yen at 44,590 yen.
The Tokyo oil market, wary of a stronger yen, tended to fall during the night session. However, with overseas crude that had plunged turning around, crude oil futures rose significantly from the level below 34,000 yen. After the night session, with yen depreciation progressing, Tokyo crude opened in positive territory in the morning. The recovery in WTI provided additional support, gradually expanding Tokyo’s gains. Although crude oil futures rose into the 34,900 yen range, they did not reach 35,000 yen. In the near term, attention is on the outcome of the producers’ representatives’ monitoring committee scheduled for the 26th, and moves toward some coordinated production cuts are anticipated, so buying Tokyo crude is considered safe, but portfolio unwinding may be considered over the weekend. It is also possible that the market will turn back to a weak tone at the start of next week. Today, given the witness hearing held in the Diet, market interest was high, and overall commodity market activities were postponed.

（Tokyo precious metals）
On the 23rd, Tokyo gold saw a mixed trade with a slight decline. The February futures for gold were down 6 yen at 4,447 yen, and the February futures for platinum were down 23 yen at 3,446 yen.
New York gold extended its rise into the 1,250-dollar range, but Tokyo, fearing further yen appreciation, showed a softer tone in the night session and declined. The post-night-session yen depreciation provided support, and just before 11 o’clock Tokyo gold futures recovered to the positive. However, the positive move was temporary, and they fell below 4,450 yen again. New York gold even dipped below 1,245 dollars, suggesting a correction toward around 1,240 dollars may occur. Nevertheless, Tokyo gold remains buoyed by expectations of a longer-term uptrend and is being bought on dips. Tokyo platinum fell more steeply due to a sharp drop in NY platinum. Different price movements between gold and platinum are expected to continue, so platinum is approached with selling on rallies.

（Tokyo rubber）
On the 23rd, Tokyo rubber, except for the nearest-month contract, held up modestly amid unsettled conditions. The August futures for the near term were up 1.0 yen at 250.0 yen.
Due to continued sharp declines in Shanghai rubber in after-hours trading and the rapid appreciation of the yen, further declines in Tokyo were anticipated. However, a yen correction began in the morning, and Tokyo recovered to around the 250 yen level from the early loss. The contract rose to 253.0 yen, but Shanghai rubber remained weak, and the near-month contract in Tokyo showed a drop below 250 yen. The next one-month contract also faced a further drop, so buying of the near-month was not sustained. Attention remains on the near-month's direction.

（Tokyo corn）
On the 23rd, Tokyo corn held its ground despite Chicago softness and a stronger yen. The March futures were down 70 yen at 21,770 yen.
In after-hours, with the double blow of a stronger yen and Chicago weakness, the price fell to 21,700 yen. After-hours yen depreciation supported a recovery in the morning, narrowing the drop. In daytime trading, the level around 21,700 yen was maintained. Chicago’s recovery is providing psychological support, and the data due tonight on weekly export sales could show strong results, contributing to Chicago’s rebound; still, this appears to be a technical rebound rather than a sustained rally.

（Tokyo U.S. soybeans）
On the 23rd, Tokyo soybeans were mixed. The February futures for nearby soybeans were down 280 yen at 48,300 yen.
With Chicago turning lower and the yen rising, a larger drop in Tokyo nearby soybeans was expected. However, market activity remained dull, with no strong reaction. The witness hearing contributed to subdued trading. Chicago’s soft trend is expected to continue, and selling on rallies is advised.
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