Common traits of losing traders = "●● excess"
Hello, this is Kaoyama.
Today is the release date of the new iPhone, isn’t it?
The new model being released is
roughly what was expected from the beginning and
there doesn’t seem to be as much enthusiasm as before.
Still, even so, every time an iPhone is released it becomes a topic of conversation to some extent,
and there are still strong Apple fans around.
There are people who say,“Only an iPhone will do.”
Even someone around me uses only Apple products—PCs, smartphones, watches—
and nothing but Apple.
I have a friend like that.
That Apple-loving friend
was disappointed at the Apple keynote in September
and
when I heard, the friend
was hoping for the 16-inch MacBook Pro
to be announced.
There were rumors
that the new 16-inch MacBook Pro with a new design
would be released in the fall,and the friend expected an announcement at the September event.
Lately, Apple tends to release new computers suddenly,
so it might come out in October,
but since there was no announcement at the September event,
the friend was disappointed and, at the same time,
seemed to be more motivated to buy than ever.
And while listening to my friend,
I remembered one thing.
That is...
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The Story of the “Skinner Box”
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.
A scientist named Skinner conducted an experiment
using mice in which
a box was made so that food came out when a lever was pulled,
and a mouse was placed inside.
Four kinds of boxes were prepared.
Some boxes released food reliably when the lever was pulled,
others released food only sometimes,
and some did not release food at all,
each with different mechanisms.When the mouse was put in the box,
the mouse would start pulling the lever to get food,
but which mouse pulled the lever the most?
It was the mouse that was placed in the box where the food appeared and disappeared.
In other words,when it was not certain whether food would appear
the mouse’s desire to pull the lever was strongest
and it was aroused the most.
This story,don’t you think it also applies to humans?
For example, in close relationships
the topic of love.
“The burning feeling grows when you don’t know what the other person thinks of you.”
You may hear such stories.
Also social media like Facebook or Instagram
where likes and comments
are uncertain,whether they appear or not,
and the uncertainty itself makes people want to see more,
and people get hooked and keep going.
For reference,
I’ll share a passage that explains plainly why people get hooked
on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and other SNS.
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“Twitter, Facebook, and email are unpredictable.
These media operate on a variable ratio schedule,
which greatly reinforces people’s behavior (causing them to repeat it).
Why do people get hooked on social media?
Because it is unpredictable, this is the answer suggested by recent learning theory,”
Yamaguchi Shuu
From “Philosophy That Becomes a Weapon (KADOKAWA)”
First edition May 28, 2018
P.96
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As stated here,
it is precisely because things are unpredictable
that people are drawn to them.
My friend’s story is the same, isn’t it?
In the case of the MacBook Pro the friend greatly awaits,
not knowing when it will be released,
and perhaps not even knowing if it will be released at all,
it is precisely this uncertainty that arouses their purchasing desire.
Perhaps it is Apple’s strategy...
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Excessive checking destroys profits
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What I just described also applies in the world of trading.
While working, often
people check stock prices and exchange rates on their smartphones,
and some become addicted to the market.
But this, too, is because the future movements of the market cannot be predicted.
If you don’t know how the market will move, it can fluctuate unrealized gains or losses,
and that makes you more anxious about the stock price.
What about you?
Do you have such addictive symptoms?
If you do, please be careful.
The more you check the market, the more you regret.
Thinking, “I should have bought there,”
or,
“I should have taken profits earlier,”
or.
“I shouldn’t have cut losses.”
And as regrets grow,
your psychology worsens,
and you start trading without following the rules.
As a result, profits disappear.
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Stock price checks should be done once a day
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If you want to reliably gain profits from stock trading
then you should first stop excessively checking stock prices.
Naturally, you want to check them.
However,
if you cannot resist that instinct,
you will keep being driven by stock prices and
bear only unrealized losses.
I assure you,checking stock prices once a day is enough to gain profits.
“But won’t that cause me to miss opportunities?”
You might think so, but
here’s a question for you.
“Can you reliably determine a true opportunity when it appears?”
You can’t, right?
If you could, you would be a multimillionaire by now.
There is a famous quote by Warren Buffett
“When the tide goes out, you can see who’s been swimming naked.”
But
whether something is a chance or not
can only be known afterward.
Of course,
there are people who can judge chances to some extent.
Still, there is no one who can judge 100% correctly.
In the end, chances cannot be perfectly predicted.
So calmly
check stock prices only once a day
and trade appropriately according to the price at that time.
I think many people will still find this hard to swallow, but
I myself have been accumulating profits by the method I just described.
With that, please read to the end today as well.
Thank you for reading until the end.
Keizo Shimoyama
