The Real Reason Why Wage Increases Are Hopeless Despite Labor Shortages
Hello, this is Kaayama.
“Young people quit their jobs quickly.”
You may have heard such stories.
In fact, you may have felt the same way.
There may have been times whenyou felt that way.
A new employee who joined in April
seemed odd after the Obon holidays,
and ended up quitting in less than six months…
Come to think of it, was it around the beginning of this month
on the program “Wide Na Show”
where comedian Sanbe talked about being a chef for soccer player Nagatomo
and moving to Turkey with resolve
but returning after two months, as a guest?
Even before moving to Turkey, there was a project to live in Fukushima,
which he ended within a year,
and the atmosphere on the show was like,
“Is it okay to quit so soon?”
What do you think?
Even in a place that doesn’t suit you
is it better to persist for three years on a rock, or
to quit as soon as it doesn’t fit?
Probably,
more people feel that persevering patiently is a virtue
than those who constantly start new things and quit.
Rather than people who repeatedly start new things and quit,
who persevere and face one thing in one place
and are “trustworthy,”
don’t you think?
By the way, this is not an emotional argument;
from a biological perspective,
which is better?
I’ll introduce a passage that explains that.
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When faced with a crisis, living beings instantly choose
to either fight or flee.
So what about humans?
In most cases, rather than taking one of these two options,
they choose to “endure quietly” and “persevere somehow.”
Why is it that there is no other animal that makes this choice
as many humans do?
The simple answer is that those who made such a choice
went extinct.
In other words, when faced with danger, to “endure” or
to “persevere and endure” is a very disadvantageous
“bad option” for survival of the individual.
From childhood, we Japanese are taught a norm of
“never run away.”
But if you think about it, from a biological survival strategy
the most widely used strategy in the world
in human society
is harshly admonished, which is odd.
Kazumi Yamamoto
‘The Era of the New Type (Diamond, 2019)
First edition, July 3, 2019
pp.253-254
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Biologically speaking,
“enduring and persisting”
is in fact the worst option.
Beyond endurance, what awaits is
species extinction.
Of course, there are various cases,
and sometimes enduring leads to big gains.
But at least“enduring in an unsuitable environment”
is not as praiseworthy as people think.
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Lifetime employment and seniority-based pay are already collapsing…
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Even so, if lifetime employment and seniority-based pay were still alive,
the act of “enduring”
might not have been a bad option.
If you endure, your livelihood would be secured anyway,
and with years of service your pay would rise.
However, as you may have noticed,
enduring is no longer a situation we can rely on.
News of large-scale layoffs by big corporations is not unusual,
and
few can feel that salaries naturally rise with age.
With taxes and social security burdens increasing
take-home pay has become smaller
or salaries feel like they’re decreasing for many.
In such an era,
staying in one place, enduring, is not a wise choice.
If you love the place, that’s different.
And here is one disappointing notice.
Going forward for a long time,
the likelihood of wages rising in Japanese companies
is quite low.
Even today,the issue of a labor shortage is widely discussed,
yet salaries have not risen.
It seems this situation is unlikely to change.
Why, you may ask…
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The Reason Why Wage Increases Are Elusive Even With Labor Shortages
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Consider one thing.
If there is a labor shortage,
the current salary level would be expected to rise significantly, right?
But that hasn’t happened.
Why not?
One reason is the immigration policy.
In hotels and convenience stores
you can see foreign workers more than before,
and isn’t it true thatthere are more foreigners not only as tourists but
in daily life as well,
than in the past?
In some areas you might think, “Is this a foreign country?”
How much do you think Japan has accepted immigrants?
According to OECD statistics, as of 2015,
about 390,000 immigrants have been accepted,
ranking fourth in the world.
So we have become an immigrant nation without realizing it.
“But even if we accept immigrants,
they say labor shortages persist,
so wages should go up, shouldn’t they?”
you might think, but
unfortunately that possibility is low.
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In June 2018, the Japanese government decided to accept foreign workers in certain industries from April 2019.
The number expected is over 500,000 by 2025.
Based on this cabinet decision, in December 2018,
the Immigration Control Act was amended.
Thus, every time wages seem to rise,
low-wage workers from abroad flow in and push wage growth down,
creating a mechanism that suppresses wage increases.
As a result, economic growth from wage increases has become almost hopeless.
Takeshi Nakano
‘Economic Classroom That Changes History When Read by Everyone: Strategy Edition
(Best Sellers Co., Ltd.)’
July 15, 2019, First edition, 1st printing
P.89
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When there is a labor shortage, normally salaries rise, but…
If the labor shortage continues, foreign workers will continue to fill the gap.
The trend of foreign workers increasing will hardly change in the future.
Lifetime employment and seniority-based pay collapse,
and wage growth is also hopeless,
in such a situation, staying in a place you don’t love is risky.
Loving a place and continuing to face one thing there
is wonderful.
However, staying in a place you don’t love
and enduring it, what do you think about that?
If you don’t like it, summoning the courage to leave is sometimes important.
So today as well
please watch until the end
and thank you for watching.
Keizo Shimoyama
