【Fujitomi】Tokyo gold is falling in price as it weighs not wanting to see NY gold's price crash
（Tokyo Crude Oil and Petroleum Products）
Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products on the 21st fell due to a double hit of overseas crude oil declines and a strong yen, but the declines were restrained, and there were moves into positive territory toward the close. Crude oil futures for August were down 60 yen from the previous week's end at 35,690 yen, gasoline futures for September were down 60 yen at 49,630 yen, and kerosene futures for September were down 190 yen at 45,330 yen.
In the pre-holiday night trading, the Tokyo oil market declined due to the yen’s strength. After the holidays, with overseas crude oil continuing to decline and the yen strengthening further, the market was expected to see a larger drop. Crude oil futures initially held at 35,500 yen, reacting sluggishly to weak fundamentals rather than showing a direct reaction. Even with the yen rising, the response was lukewarm, and the declines continued. While maintaining 35,500 yen, the market later recovered to the 35,700 yen range as the yen weakened and overseas crude rebounded. Compared with before the holidays, overseas crude was being sold, and yen strength had progressed by 113 yen 30 sen before the holidays. Nevertheless, despite these weak fundamentals, Tokyo was aggressively buying back, making the overvalued price level more evident. Eyes cannot be taken off the API crude oil inventory statistics to be released tomorrow morning. Not only crude oil inventories but petroleum product inventories should be watched. Tokyo crude oil rose forcefully just before 15:00 and entered positive territory.
（Tokyo Precious Metals）
Tokyo gold fell due to the yen’s strength and the drop in NY gold on the 21st. Gold futures for February were down 14 yen from the previous week’s end at 4,442 yen, and platinum futures for February were down 10 yen at 3,473 yen.
In the weekend’s night trading, Tokyo gold fell, but the yen’s strength persisted. After the holidays, the yen remained strong, but NY gold continued to be bought, so Tokyo gold was expected to rebound. In fact, early in the morning, gold futures traded around 4,450 yen, peaking at 4,455 yen. However, with the yen strengthening further by 9:30, it fell to the 4,440 yen range, and before 11:00, NY gold fell below 1,230 dollars, pulling Tokyo gold down to the 4,430 yen range. NY gold’s price decline pressured NY platinum as well, and Tokyo platinum fell into negative territory later in the day. Tokyo gold, for now, remained around the 4,430 yen range, and with anticipated continued buying ahead of NY gold’s second quarter, a dip-buying stance seemed prudent.
（Tokyo Rubber）
Tokyo rubber on the 21st fell. August futures were down 5.0 yen from the previous week’s end at 263.0 yen.
Over the weekend, Shanghai rubber dropped below 18,000 yuan in after-hours trading, and with the yen strengthening, Tokyo rubber opened lower at 264.8 yen. Trading stayed around the 265 yen level. The yen faded after 9:30, but declines were restrained. After 10:00, as Shanghai rubber fell further, stop-loss selling hit, quickly producing a low of 262.8 yen. It then recovered to around 265 yen, but with Shanghai’s continued declines, there was selling pressure by noon and fresh lows were set.
（Tokyo Corn）
Tokyo corn on the 21st fell due to the stronger yen and the Chicago market’s beginning-of-week decline. March futures were down 430 yen from the previous week’s end at 22,080 yen.
Before the holiday, corn was in a wait-and-see mood with mixed prospects. With Chicago’s decline and a stronger yen at the start of the week, a drop after the holidays seemed inevitable, but front-month futures began in the 22,300 yen range. After 9:30, the market fell to 22,200 yen as the yen strengthened, but selling pressure grew and risk-off buying diminished. After noon, Chicago’s further decline pushed the price below 22,200 yen, and a breach of 22,000 yen also looked realistic.
（Tokyo Soybeans for the U.S. market）
Tokyo general soybeans remained only slightly down despite Chicago’s decline and a stronger yen. February futures were down 360 yen from the previous week’s end at 49,050 yen.
Over the holidays, Chicago continued to fall and the yen rose, so in after-hours trading general soybeans advanced, but during the day they were sold. However, they maintained above 49,000 yen, and the decline was clearly restrained. Compared with corn, the decline was less pronounced. As April approaches, the new harvest season is in focus, and further declines are expected to be limited. There is likely to be little reaction to the month's important announcements.
