【FujiTom】 NY gold rises for the third consecutive trading day
（NY Precious Metals）
On the 20th, New York gold was supported by technical buying and rose for a third consecutive trading day. New York near-term April gold futures were up $3.80 from the previous Friday’s close (a total of $6.90 higher over the two trading days) to $1,234.00 per ounce, while New York near-term April platinum futures were up $9.40 (a total of $14.00 higher) to $972.40 per ounce.
In early Monday trading, activity hovered around the $1,230 level, but gradually shifted to testing resistance above and below around $1,230, eventually breaking above the previous Friday’s high of $1,234.00. While a stronger dollar was observed, the market showed signs of further upside as the $1,230 level formed a bottom, and the move suggests that funds may be front-running risk in the second quarter, contributing to buying. The $1,260s in the late–double hundred dollar area near the 200-day moving average also appears to be technically in focus.
(WTI Crude Oil, NY Petroleum Products, North Sea Brent)
On the 20th, WTI crude fell back. WTI near-term May futures were down $0.40 (a total of $0.33 lower over the two days) to $48.91, North Sea Brent near-term May futures were down $0.14 (a total of $0.12 lower) to $51.62. RBOB gasoline April futures were up 1.24 cents (up 1.71 cents over two days) to 161.13 cents, and NY heating oil near-term April futures were up 0.56 cents (up 0.98 cents) to 151.41 cents.
U.S. crude oil production increases were again a source of concern, serving as a major negative factor at the start of the week. The Baker Hughes weekly rig count for U.S. crude dipped by 14 rigs from the previous week, marking nine consecutive increases. Though not viewed as bearish last week, the market reevaluated at the start of the week, turning to a lower range. U.S. crude production has risen for four consecutive weeks, while OPEC’s coordinated cuts’ pace appears unsettled, making a global supply glut less likely to improve. Libyan output increases were a concern during declines. The Brent near-term May contract managed to stay around the $51 level, helping WTI May recover to the $49 area, but subsequent selling resumed. NY petroleum products continued to rise, driven by expectations of stronger U.S. demand.
(CBOT Soybeans)
On the 20th, CBOT soybeans fell slightly on technical selling. Near-term May contract fell 1.75 cents (a total of 3.25 cents lower over two days) to 998.25 cents, new-crop November contract fell 1.00 cent (a total of 2.75 cents lower) to 992.50 cents.
As usual, they rose during Asian trading hours at the start of the week, but selling pressure from South America eroded the highs, and the close ended near the lows, with the near-term May contract below $10 again. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly Export Inspection data showed 7.3725 million tons, above the upper end of the pre-release forecast range of 6.0 million tons, but the forecast itself was already on the low side, so it didn’t provide a strong supportive signal. Sentiment remained soft due to concerns about South American supply pressure.
(CBOT Corn)
On the 20th, CBOT corn fell. Near-term May contract was down 4.25 cents (a total of 3.00 cents lower over two days) to 363.25 cents, new-crop December contract was down 3.75 cents (a total of 1.75 cents lower) to 386.00 cents.
Following wheat’s collapse, corn also came under selling pressure and finished near the lows for both wheat and corn. Wheat dropped sharply on deteriorating weather in the U.S. Plains. The May corn contract again fell below the 200-day moving average. The USDA’s weekly Export Inspection data showed 13.33064 million tons, which fell within the expected range and thus had little impact on sentiment.
