[Fujitomi] Tokyo Gold extends sharply on the back of the sharp rise in New York gold

(Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products)
On the 16th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products showed unstable price movements as overseas crude oil surged while the yen strengthened sharply, creating mixed signals. The August contract for crude oil futures fell 160 yen to 35,930 yen, the September contract for gasoline futures fell 40 yen to 49,810 yen, and the September contract for kerosene futures fell 270 yen to 45,640 yen.
The nighttime Tokyo energy market welcomed overseas crude oil’s further rise and briefly moved higher, but price declines followed as investors wary of the rapid yen appreciation pulled back. Restarted WTI was trading in the 49-dollar range, and with WTI maintaining the 49-dollar range, the morning Tokyo energy market saw a narrowing of gains. Tokyo crude oil hovered around 36,000 yen in the morning. Although there were speculative purchases trying to push the upside, the yen’s strength also dampened continued buying. The prior day, NY gasoline had fallen, but after the market reopened it rose, providing support for WTI. It can be said that NY oil rose helped by dollar weakness, but given the still bearish fundamentals, buying is not expected to last long.

(Tokyo precious metals)
On the 16th, Tokyo gold rose sharply following the surge in NY gold; the February contract for gold futures rose 23 yen to 4,451 yen, and the February contract for platinum futures rose 59 yen to 3,526 yen.
After FOMC, NY gold surged amid unclear price movements due to the advancing yen, leading to an unclear behavior in nighttime Tokyo gold. In the morning, supported by NY gold’s strength, it moved solidly around the 4,430 yen level. By 11 o’clock, NY gold exceeding 1,225 dollars influenced Tokyo gold to surge into the 4,450 yen range. NY gold could also test the 20-day moving average in European trading. Tokyo platinum also surged. Because it lags, large buying is expected to push it back toward the 3,500 yen range. The 20-day moving average for NY platinum is in the mid-980-dollar area, so a pullback to that level is anticipated.

(Tokyo rubber)
On the 16th, Tokyo rubber rose briefly but then fell. The August contract for futures fell 2.1 yen to 263.9 yen.
Tokyo rubber, aided by a firm Shanghai rubber market, hit a high of 268.0 yen around 10 a.m., but after 11 a.m. suddenly collapsed and plunged. It is thought that the stance of short-term trading before the holidays influenced this. Night trading was also very thin, making market moves more dependent on the next lot. A wide contrarian play around the 260 yen level is deemed prudent.

(Tokyo corn)
On the 16th, Tokyo corn fell sharply at one point due to rapid yen appreciation but narrowed the decline on optimistic Chicago prices. The March contract for futures settled 50 yen lower at 22,500 yen.
Chicago showed two straight days of slight gains, but expectations had already been priced in during Tokyo’s daytime trading. Meanwhile, the rapid yen appreciation was ongoing, so further declines in Tokyo corn were anticipated, but nighttime reaction was weak and the downside was restrained. In the morning, despite yen strength, prices began in positive territory around 22,560 yen. The move ignored the yen but quickly fell below 22,500 yen, widening the downside. Chicago corn moved higher after 9 o’clock reopening, but Tokyo, ignoring yen strength and with a rebound reaction, did not follow Chicago’s rise. With further yen appreciation in progress, by just after 9:30, prices fell below 22,300 yen. As yen strength paused, prices recovered and Chicago’s rise was reevaluated, returning to the 22,400 yen range.

(Tokyo soybeans, US)
On the 16th, Tokyo soybeans were extremely quiet. The February contract for futures settled 400 yen lower at 49,680 yen.
Despite continued declines in Chicago and the rapid yen appreciation, the night decline was limited, and the nearby futures remained just below 50,000 yen. In Asia time, Chicago soybeans were rallying again. The market has been full of false starts; this should not be taken as a reference. Tonight, all eyes will be on the USDA weekly export sales report. Tokyo is still quite overpriced and likely to fall further.