【Fujitomi】U.S. FOMC aftermath, New York precious metals jump sharply

（NY Precious Metals）
On the 15th, New York gold rose sharply against the backdrop of a rapid dollar decline after the FOMC statement, with the New York gold near-month April contract down 1.9 dollars from the previous day at 1200.7 dollars, and the New York gold near-month April platinum contract down 2.1 dollars at 936.8 dollars.
The FOMC statement signaled support for three rate hikes this year, which reduced expectations for more than three hikes and allowed the dollar to weaken. Although rate hikes themselves tend to push the dollar higher, market expectations had also been for up to four hikes a year, so the reaction was largely anticipated, leading to a dollar decline and a broad surge in NY precious metals. A 0.25% rate increase was implemented, but the market had already priced in the move. With prices approaching the 1220-dollar level on the charts, it appears to have formed a near-term bottom. For a while, the dollar market is likely to continue to exhibit large fluctuations.

（WTI crude oil, NY refined products, North Sea Brent）
On the 15th, WTI crude oil rebounded sharply, rallying toward the settlement value, recovering into the 49-dollar area. WTI near-month April contract up 1.14 dollars from the previous day to 48.86 dollars, Brent near-month May contract up 0.89 dollars to 51.81 dollars. RBOB gasoline April contract down 0.01 cent to 158.34 cents, NY heating oil near-month April contract up 2.05 cents to 151.24 cents.
Encouraged by a bullish U.S. inventory report, both WTI and Brent had shown a strong rebound since the previous day’s API inventory data release. U.S. EIA stock data also showed a modest decline in crude inventories, down 2.37 million barrels from the previous week. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.055 million barrels, middle distillates by 4.229 million barrels, and as with the API data, refined product inventories fell sharply. The reduction in inventories was due to lower crude imports and reduced refinery utilization, but not necessarily a surge in oil demand driving product stockouts. Crude production continued to rise, and with a large drop in imports offsetting the increase, crude inventories still declined only modestly. Following the EIA release, WTI rose again to a high of 48.88 dollars, but later trimmed gains. However, the price spiked toward settlement once more, briefly moving into the 49-dollar range. Gasoline demand remained lackluster and prices retreated from their highs. The cold snap in the U.S. Northeast supported NY heating oil due to demand from major heating oil users. Given the continued increase in U.S. crude output and persistently high crude stocks, WTI is expected to test lower levels again.

（CBOT Soybeans）
On the 15th, CBOT soybeans weakened on bearish crush margins, continuing the decline. May near-month contract down 2.00 cents from the previous day to 997.25 cents, new-crop November contract down 2.50 cents to 992.00 cents.
NOPA reported February crush at 147.792 million bushels, down from January’s 160.621 million and the previous February’s 146.181 million. In addition to softer export demand, a weak crush figure worsens the soybean fundamentals for the U.S. as South American supplies tighten. The Asian-session rally proved to be a false breakout again. If tomorrow’s export sales are weak, further downside pressure is expected.

（CBOT Corn）
On the 15th, CBOT corn inched higher, marking a second straight day of gains. May near-month contract up 1.25 cents from the previous day to 363.50 cents, new-crop December contract up 1.25 cents to 385.50 cents.
With a one-and-a-half-month slide easing, buying near the 3.60-dollar level supported the gains. However, South American demand pressures remain a concern for corn, and the rebound in Chicago was limited. After an initial recovery, world oversupply could lead to renewed selling, with prices possibly slipping below 3.60 dollars. The market is not being driven by end-month U.S. stock and planting intentions; trading is likely to stay in a narrow range given the timing.
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