[FujiTom] Receptive to the rebound in NY gold, Tokyo gold is bought again

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
On the 15th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products advanced on the bullish U.S. API inventory statistics. The front-month crude oil August contract rose 60 yen from the previous day to 36,090 yen, the front-month gasoline September contract rose 90 yen to 49,850 yen, and the front-month kerosene September contract rose 90 yen to 45,910 yen.
In after-hours trading, as OPEC's monthly report was viewed unfavorably and overseas crude oil plummeted, the Tokyo oil market turned broadly lower, dropping more than 1,000 yen from the highs. Global demand growth in 2017 exceeded supply growth, leading to higher inventories. Also, Saudi Arabia’s February oil production fell by 68,000 barrels, but on the Saudi self-reported basis it rose by 263,000 barrels, resulting in a rate above the OPEC voluntary output reduction target of 10.58 million barrels per day. Questions about the credibility of OPEC’s reduction figures remained, so the sharp drop was expected. Initially, considering the global supply increase, it fell sharply, and then fell further on Saudi increases. By the way, after-hours API inventory data showed crude stocks unexpectedly decline and product stocks fell even more than expected, U.S. NYMEX product prices surged to new highs, contributing to a strong rebound in WTI and Brent. As a result, Tokyo's daytime trading moved back into positive territory. If tonight’s U.S. EIA inventory data meet expectations, the upside may widen. The market has been highly volatile due to events, but this will reaffirm U.S. crude oil production increases, and with U.S. crude inventory remaining at record-high levels, overseas crude will likely be sold off again; thus, a returning-sell stance remains prudent.

（Tokyo Precious Metals）
On the 15th, Tokyo gold briefly declined but then recovered toward the close on a favorable reaction to NY gold’s rebound. Front-month gold February contract rose 4 yen to 4,428 yen, and front-month platinum February contract rose 4 yen to 3,467 yen.
NY gold dipping below 1,200 dollars affected Tokyo gold, causing a retreat. In after-hours trading, it slipped below 1,200 dollars toward the close, triggering stop-loss selling. Tokyo gold fell to the 4,400 yen level, and in the morning traded around 4,400 yen. Later, with NY gold recovering above 1,200 dollars and a weaker yen, Tokyo gold rebounded toward noon, reaching a high of 4,422 yen but not turning positive. Activity was higher than the previous day, but with the FOMC statement due at 3:00 a.m. and Yellen’s press conference at 3:30 a.m., market attention was on statements about rate hikes after May.

（Tokyo Rubber）
On the 15th, Tokyo rubber saw strong buying in the afternoon. Front-month August contract at 266.0 yen, up 4.0 yen from the previous day.
In after-hours, Tokyo rubber slipped below 260 yen, but during daytime trading it started in the 262 yen area and held firm. Early morning was supported by the brisk rebound in overseas crude oil, starting around 262 yen. It then stayed in the 260s, showing a rebound in line with the week's late-day surge. In fact, in the afternoon it jumped to exceed the week's high of 267.5 yen, rising sharply to the 268 yen area. Since then the gains have narrowed, but caution is advised for tomorrow due to potential internal factors.

（Tokyo Corn）
On the 15th, Tokyo corn rose on the strength of Chicago's firm market. Front-month March contract up 100 yen to 22,550 yen.
Trading in Tokyo corn remained subdued ahead of the long weekend. Chicago also traded within a narrow box, further discouraging buying interest in Tokyo. Chicago nearby May has stayed around 3.60 dollars, suggesting a possible further bounce, but given persistent global oversupply, Chicago’s rebound may be limited, and Tokyo buying was lackluster. With Chicago trying to form a floor, selling remains restrained for the time being, and buying back is considered safer.

（Tokyo Soybeans, U.S.）
On the 15th, Tokyo non-GMO soybeans traded thinly and unevenly. Front-month February contract up 140 yen to 50,080 yen.
Chicago continued to decline sharply, setting new recent lows, but Tokyo showed an early rebound. Earlier, there was a brief plunge at the close, but Tokyo’s price level ignored Chicago’s descent, remaining in higher territory. Today, the price stayed around 50,000 yen, but this price level is increasingly expensive. In Asia trading, Chicago’s rebound has been a pattern of false moves.