【Accuracy almost 0%】2,4,6.. What are the next numbers?
Hello, this is Koyama.
As I have always said,
I spend most of my dayplaying games
and reading manga.
Perhaps some people may notthink highly of games and manga,
but...
In fact, even within manga,
there are hints that enrich life
that are hidden.
For example, this.
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Whether a judgment is right or wrong
is not known by anyone at the moment
Therefore, what matters is after the judgment
the effort to make the judgment correct
even if the judgment leads to bad results
what you can do from there
how you fight back is what is important
If everything is decided by judgment
life would become a gamble
Shirai Kaiu / Izumi Poska
“The Promised Neverland (Shueisha, Ltd.)”
March 9, 2019 First Edition
From P.56
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The manga called “The Promised Neverland” is
a single frame, butwhat do you think?
Perhapswhen reading manga,
many people may skim through it
but it conveys something important.
It is not about investing,
the lines are important,
and it perfectly expressesthe essence of the “Wave Riding Investment Method”
which I myself practice andcontinue to profit from
to say it would not be an overstatement.
99% of traders in the worldaim to make perfect investment judgments,
and they work hard daily.
“If you buy, the stock price will rise,”“If you sell, the stock price will fall,”
pursuing such ideal tradesand continue learning.
In the media,
there are many methods for
“making perfect investment judgments,”
and many traders are swayed by such methods.
But,if you think about it carefully,
a perfect investment judgmentdoes not exist.
Even if you could make wonderful judgments temporarily,
for decades to continuously make wonderful judgments
is absolutely impossible.
So in the end,
instead of trying to make perfect judgments,
if problems arise,to cover them,
this is what we traders can do.
From the beginningto always make the best judgments
is not something you should havean inflated pride about.
Of course, aiming for the best judgment
is not a bad thing.
However,
what to do when the situation heads in a bad direction,
and what to do when you think you made a wrong judgment
are far more important.
I have alwaysthought that way about stock trading.
Always anticipate the worst,
think about what to do one, two, or three moves ahead,
and trade accordingly.
That is why,for over 8 years
I have continued to profit.
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2, 4, 6 … what is the next number?
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After hearing this far,
some of you may be convinced.
Some may reflect, saying,
“I was placing too much emphasis on judgments.”
And
you may think, “From now on, rather than making judgments,
focus on how to deal with bad situations,”
you might think this is the way to go.
That is wonderful.
But now I will give you one more piece of advice.
If you
decide, “I will not rely on my own judgments,”
it will be no easy task to shed that constraint.
No matter how conscious you are, your tendency to overestimate your own judgment
and trade without considering other possibilities
will undoubtedly occur.
“No, that’s not true,”
you might think,
so please consider this.
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“A professor placed a sheet with the numbers 2, 4, 6 in front of students. The subjects were asked to predict the next numbers to guess the rule. The rule was written on the back of the sheet. If a student proposed a number that matched the rule, the professor would say ‘matches the rule.’ If not, ‘does not match.’ The subjects could propose as many numbers as they liked. However, guessing the rule was allowed only once.”
Rolf Dobelli
“Why We Make Mistakes (Sanmark Publishing)”
2013 September 20, First Edition
From P.49
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How about that?
Put yourself in the students’ shoes and think.
You cannot ask the professor, but you will probably instinctively
think that 8, 10, 12 … will continue
and not consider other possibilities, right?
When this experiment was actually conducted,many students
appeared to answer that way.
“The number after the final one is obtained by adding 2.”
However, that was incorrect.
The correct answer was
“The next number must be greater than the previous one.”
Once you have decided,
that your own thinking is absolutely correct,
you cannot consider other possibilities,
and that is how humans are.
In trading as well,for example when a chart forms neatly into a
“double bottom,”
and it seems like “this will surely go up!”
and you feel a tremor of a great opportunity,
there will be moments that feel like a perfect timing
to buy aggressively.
Yet, in such moments those who utterly trust their own thinking
and make all-out purchases
do not deserve to call themselves traders.
No matter how sure the rise seems, the chart has no absolutes,
and things that are called “deceptions” often happen.
And they eat away at your funds.
What I am conveying today,the way to take it is
up to you to decide.
However,could you say with certainty that the thinking shared today is wrong?
If you could refute today's talk and
explain logically that “being able to make the best judgments is essential for traders,”
then that would be good.
“Please believe what I say”
is not something I will ask of you at all, but
if you cannot properly argue back,
please try accepting it once.
And,
re-approach trading with a renewed mindset.
Thank you for watching until the end today as well.
Keizo Shimoyama
