Frequent losses in coin tosses, but overall still a sufficiently positive balance [Yu Kiriri]
Coin Toss Trade August 19 (Mon) – August 23 (Fri) Results Announcement
【Verification Rules】Coin Toss Trade
■ Currency Pair: GBP/JPY
■ Trading Rules:
- Buy when heads comes up, sell when tails comes up
- OCO exit with take profit at +60 pips, stop loss at −50 pips
- Entries around 15:00–16:00
※ Back issues of the serialized column (from issue 1) are here (navigate to FX攻略.com official site)
Last week's Coin Toss Trade lost quite a bit (laughs)
Recently it feels like a roller coaster of win streaks and losing streaks: win, lose, win, lose. But continuity is important because there are both wins and losses.
August 19 (Mon)
Buy → ×
August 20 (Tue)
Buy → ×
August 21 (Wed)
Sell → ×
August 22 (Thu)
Buy → ○
August 23 (Fri)
Buy → ×
So far 123 trades have been completed with 59 wins and 64 losses for +340 pips!
Long positions are 59 times, short positions are 64 times, fairly balanced.
Moreover, interestingly, the number of longs and shorts is the same as the current win/loss tally lol
If I trade about 200 times, perhaps buy and sell counts will converge to roughly the same? Looking forward to it.
There are days when the swap differential reaches 1 yen (sweat)
【23:00 Heikin-Ashi Trade】
【Trading Rules】23:00 Heikin-Ashi Trade
■ Currency Pair: EUR/USD
■ Timeframe: 1-hour chart
■ Trading Rules：
- Open EUR/USD chart at 23:00, enter only if the 22:00 hourly Heikin-Ashi shows a reversal
- If bearish candle becomes bullish, buy; if bullish candle becomes bearish, sell
- OCO take profit at +100 pips, stop loss at −50 pips
- Maximum open positions for both buy and sell: 1 each. Do not hold multiple positions in the same direction
■ Backtesting results over the past two years show a clean upward trend
I sold on August 21 (Wed), but this position hit the stop loss. No photo due to SBIFX maintenance.
【Hedging Swap Gain/Loss and Transfer】
Receiving swaps and paying swaps fluctuate in the short term. By August 23, the difference between receive and pay swaps was only 2 yen. Daily yield about 110 yen.
On August 26, the paying swap will drop by 1 yen, raising daily yield to about 165 yen, but still hoping for a wider gap (laughs)
Watching CAD/JPY and other multi-currency pairs as well; still on hold for now.
Bonus
I love a good atmosphere at my favorite udon shop, Tsuru-ton-tan! Went back after a long time. Creamy udon was as delicious as ever.
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Yu Kizato (Kizato Yū) Profile
About 10 years in FX. Aims to win using probability theory and psychology, without any detailed technical analysis. Also operates steadily with swap carry trades and compounding. A free-spirited person who loves spirituality and music. Lives in Tokyo.
Official site：Yu Kizato’s Swap FX Life
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