Non-calculation in calculation (2)

A known dealer said.

“If we assume the settlement day is 20 days in a month, the real number you can take is only 2 or 3 days. But since you never know which day it will be, you have no choice but to act as if today could be that day.”

Individual investors are allowed to take time off, but professional dealers must produce results every month. Therefore, they cannot afford to rest even on a weekly or daily basis.

The book ‘New Edition: The Zhongyuan Line Positioning Method (Chugen-sen Ken-tama-hō)’ contains the following description.

The Zhongyuan line trading method is a standardized trading criterion built on the statistical greatest common divisor of past price movements. When waves stray from the past average movements, losses must be incurred. Of course, you must continue even if you lose.

(From ‘Part IV: Practice and Experiment’)

In other sections it states to “create an appropriate period of rest,” but in principle it emphasizes “keep going.”

“Even with a working rule, there are times when you cannot make money” and “you cannot expect to forecast when that will happen.” If you could sense in advance that, for example, “the next three months this rule will not function,” you could fundamentally change the rule itself.

To say “keep going even at a loss” sounds like “Are you a masochist?”, but it also means that there are things you must accept.

If you examine the rules every month and constantly change parameters or the logic (the basic criteria), you will simply drift and remain bound to the past. It is easy to fall into an inescapable confusion.

There is also the idea of analyzing recent price movement characteristics and “gradually changing the criteria,” but that is probably a thorny path. It feels hard to tackle.

Now, while considering various price movement patterns and accepting that “there will be periods when you cannot take profits,” we still need to establish a solid set of response criteria before trading can begin. Still, I worry about avoiding mental strain from a string of losses.

There will be a special program on the theme of “How to Create Trading Rules.”

It is a practical-minded project where the top practitioner, Takeshi Numata, known as Andy, and I will exchange opinions, and Yui Ikeda, who will serve as MC, will also join the discussion.

Recording is next week, and the broadcast is scheduled for late March.

I will inform you again, so please look forward to it!