99% of individual investors forget the fundamental premise of investing
Great work looks too natural,
appearing as if you’re not doing anything.
Artificial knowledge or consciousness alone
cannot accomplish great things.
Masao Kammu. “Learning from the Hakka Tycoons: 18 Rules for Tao and Eternal Success”
(Japanese Edition)
Shōraku-sha. 1st edition (2013/12/1)
From Kindle edition (location No. 577-578)
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Hello, this is Shimoyama.
There are an abundance of investment methods in the world.
There is free information available in plenty.
Those who are actually making profits
Even professional investment techniques
can be obtained for free from the Internet if you want.
Which stocks should you buy
is a worry for many investors,
but
the world’s No.1 investor
Warren Buffett
holding what kind of stocks
is something you can easily know.
Buffett’s investment philosophy and methods
are disclosed without reservation,
and if you lack funds to invest the same way as Buffett,
there is also the option of
buying Berkshire Hathaway stock.
Anyway, information and methods
are available if you put in a little effort.
Yet, many people still don’t win.
There are plenty of people who make temporary profits,
but
“I can live on investing alone,
and I’m fine no matter what happens next.”
How many people can say that with pride?
I think it’s less than 1% of individual investors.
Why is that?
Why, with so much information, can’t they keep winning?
Because there is one fundamental premise that is wrong.
That is...
“No one can know the market even one second ahead.”
This is the fundamental premise.
Many people operate under the premise
that “there is a way to read stock prices,”
and they continue to search for it.
And even though stock price predictions do occasionally hit,
even a rough guess can be correct about 50% of the time...
The fundamental premise that “stock prices are predictable”
is wrong,and because of that
people approach investing with the wrong stance
and 99% lose.
If you’re not winning,
first reconsider your ownattitude toward investing.
The moment your attitude toward investing fundamentally changes,
your investment life will begin to change.
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What to do before predicting the future
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Then,
when you accept that “no one can know the market even one second ahead,”
what can an investor do?
Reading Nikkei, Weekly Toyo,
analyst reports,
is not about predicting the future,
you’ll understand this is not about forecasting the future.
I’m not saying those things are completely useless, but
before that, isn’t there something else you should be doing?
Since no one can know the market even one second ahead,
it is most important to preemptively prepare for when circumstances turn unfavorable.
Create a situation in which you can survive under any circumstance.
If you can do this perfectly,
you won’t be forced to exit the market first, right?
Then, what should you do to increase your profit margin?
That is what you should consider.
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Truths appear easy.
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Now, changing the subject slightly,
let me tell a bit of football (soccer) story.
Currently,
the international pre-season match
the International Champions Cup
commonly known as ICC
is being held.This is a tournament in which big clubs such as
Real Madrid of SpainManchester United and Arsenal of England,
Inter and Milan of Italy,
and others participate.
It is a lineup of many big clubs.
Kubo Takefusa has transferred to Real Madrid and has drawn attention in Japan as well.
Real Madrid will play
tomorrow, July 24 (Wed) at 8:00,
against Arsenal of England,
and on Saturday, July 27 at 8:30,
against Atletico Madrid,
where Kubo Takefusa may participate.
The matches can be watched on DAZN,
so DAZN subscribers may increase as a result.
Even so, in many senses
Japanese players like Kubo are from a different dimension,
aren’t they?
Many have likely watched videos of Kubo’s plays,
and the excitement is evident even to amateurs.
However,
when Kubo performs difficult techniques
as if it’s normal
and naturally,
if not pointed out, you might overlook
the truly amazing plays.
At the outset,
I quoted,
“Great work looks too natural,
appearing as if you’re not doing anything.”
I believe truly excellent plays
look like you’re not doing much at all.
And this story also applies to investing.
In fact, the world of investing is
where truly profitable trades
look like you’re not doing much.
I am often criticized for this.
During day or night,
I wake and sleep as I please,
and spend about 1 to 3 minutes each day
checking stock prices on my phone and placing or settling orders,
so people say,
“There’s no way you can win with such a casual approach.”This insult is common.
But if you ask me,
that criticism is off the mark.
Profits are actually being made,
and if you focus only on what is truly necessary,
investing doesn’t have to take much time at all.
While many people waste time predicting stock prices,
I focus on how to move positions to create a state of absolute no-loss while generating profit,
and build a strategy around that.
Moreover, that strategy is something I’ve built in my head from day to day,
so the actual trading time is almost zero.
Do you understand what I’m saying?
To summarize what I wanted to convey today,
- Do not get the big premise of investing wrong
- Real, profit-generating trades look easy
That’s what it means.
If this provides you with any insight, I’d be glad.
With that, today as well,
thank you for watching until the end.
Keizo Shimoyama
