Is it about time for probability convergence after achieving 100 matches? [Kisato Yuu]
Last week's coin toss trading lost quite a bit. I traded more than 100 times, so I’m starting to think the probability convergence might be happening around here.
Coin Toss Trading July 22 (Mon) - July 26 (Fri) Results
【Verification Rules】Coin Toss Trading
■ Currency Pair: GBP/JPY
■ Trading Rules:
- Heads means buy, tails means sell
- Take profit at 60 pips, stop loss at −50 pips with an OCO exit
- Entry around 3–4 PM
July 22 (Mon)
Buy → ×
July 23 (Tue)
Sell → ×
On this day, the buys held since July 19 were also liquidated.
July 24 (Wed)
Sell → ×
July 25 (Thu)
Buy → ○
July 26 (Fri)
Sell → This position was carried over to the following week.
Coin Toss Trading ends up 49 wins, 53 losses, +290 pips. Onward and upward.
Heikin-Ashi Trading: accumulate steady profits
【23:00 Heikin-Ashi Trading】
【Trading Rules】23:00 Heikin-Ashi Trading
■ Currency Pair: EUR/USD
■ Timeframe: 1-hour chart
■ Trading Rules:
- Open the EUR/USD chart at 23:00; enter only if the 22:00–hour Heikin-Ashi candle is reversing
- If a bearish candle becomes bullish, buy; if bullish becomes bearish, sell
- Take profit at +100 pips, stop loss at −50 pips with an OCO exit
- Maximum positions per side: 1 each. Do not hold multiple positions in the same direction
■ The backtest results over the past two years show a clean upward slope
On July 23, a buy held since July 17 was stopped out.
However, the sell held since July 11 was profit-taking.
Total: 7 wins, 11 losses, +150 pips.
【Hedged-Swap Arbitrage】
News at last!
From July 29, DMMFX’s payout swap decreased. From 25 yen to 22 yen, a 3-yen drop increases daily profit by 165 yen. Nice.
Bonus
I’ve always wanted to try the oil noodle dish “Shinsengumi.” Onions topping pair nicely with it.
Yuu Kizato (Kizato Yuu) Profile
About 10 years in FX. No fine-grained technical analysis; aims for profits using probability theory and psychological tricks. Also runs solid compound growth with swap carry. A spiritual, music-loving free spirit. Based in Tokyo.
Official Site:Yuu Kizato’s Swap FX Life
twitter:https://twitter.com/KizatoFX
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