The Future of Foreign Exchange Markets 第103回［田嶋智太郎］
Tomotaro Tajima (Tajima Tomotaro) Profile
Economic analyst. Alfinances CEO. Born in Tokyo in 1964. After graduating from Keio University, he switched careers following his time at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. He analyzes and studies a wide range from finance and the overall economy to strategic corporate management, extending to individual asset formation and fund management. He serves as a lecturer for lectures, seminars, and trainings organized by private companies, financial institutions, newspapers, local governments, and various chambers of commerce, with about 150 lectures per year. He has numerous print media contributions, including serial writings and comments in Weekly Gendai “Rules of Net Trading” and Examina “Money Maestro Training Course.” He has also written for numerous websites on columns about stocks, foreign exchange, etc., and is highly regarded as a stock and FX strategist. He has also written for the Home Economics section of “Basic Knowledge of Contemporary Terms” from Free People’s Association. After regular appearances on television (TV Asahi “Yajiuma Plus,” BS Asahi “Sunday Online”) and radio (MBS “Suri-chan’s Asa-ichi Radio”), he currently serves as a regular commentator on Nikkei CNBC “Market Wrap” and Daiwa Securities Information TV “Economy Marche.” His main DVDs include “Very Easy to Understand: Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Introduction” and “Very Easy to Understand: Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Practical Technical Analysis.” His main books include “Wealth Reassessment Manual” (Pal Publishing), “FX Chart ‘Formula for Profit’” (Alchemix), “Why Can You Become Asset Rich with FX?” (Text), among many others. His latest publication is “How to Profit by Riding the Rising US Economy” (Free People’s Association).
※This article is a reprint and revision of an article from FX攻略.com, November 2018 issue. Please note that the market information described in the text may differ from current market conditions.
A flood of opaque developments erupting like mushrooms after rain…
When we look back at August, the market topics were mainly “Turkey” and “China.” With overseas participants on long summer holidays and markets generally quiet with a lack of clues, the sharp declines in the Turkish lira and the Chinese yuan (and the Shanghai Composite Index) provided enough material for the market to tilt toward a risk-off mood.
What was particularly impactful was a August 10 article in the Financial Times, which stated, according to sources, that the European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned about euro-area financial institutions’ exposure to Turkey. The article even named Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit, and France’s BNP Paribas, which increased the sense of realism and severity of the issue. In hindsight, for several days afterward the market was enveloped in an uneasy, dark mood. With the involvement of the United States and Russia, the root of the problem deepened. Shockingly, the US found itself at odds with Turkey, a NATO member, and Russia then took the opportunity to move closer to Turkey.
Naturally, President Trump, with midterm elections approaching, cannot retreat easily. From the perspective of autocrats in Turkey, China, and Russia, easy compromises are even less likely. It seems Trump has lost interest in North Korea due to diminished political appeal, leading to even greater focus on “China bashing.” The US-China trade issues have already entered a state of “war,” and without some quiet backdoor settlement through undisclosed efforts, the market’s risk-off mood will not be fully dispelled.
Still, new problems pop up one after another. A commentator on television likened it to “mushrooms after rain,” and it’s exactly that—dangerous and not to be underestimated.
