Australian dollar rate cuts and declines sharply reduce buy swaps… It's a crisis! [Yuu Kirisato]
Coin Toss Trade
Let's do a digest of last week's coin toss trade. From here, we'll attach screenshots of the coin flip app for buy and sell.
【Verification Rules】Coin Toss Trade
■Currency pair: GBP/JPY
■Trading rules：
- If heads appears, buy; if tails appears, sell
- Take profit at +60 pips, stop loss at −50 pips with an OCO settlement
- Entries around 15–16 o'clock
Monday, June 3
Sell → ×
Tuesday, June 4
Buy → ○
Wednesday, June 5
Sell → ×
Thursday, June 6
Sell → ×
Friday, June 7
Buy → Carried over to next week
Coin Toss Trade is a contest of wins and losses
Last week, it was 1 win, 3 losses with 1 position carried over. Totals: 35 wins, 34 losses, +400 pips. It’s turning into a good contest.
By the time you reach 200 trades, it will be interesting to see whether you stay in positive territory or go negative.
Also, the 23:00 Heikin-Ashi trades, the May 27 selling position was stopped out on June 4.
This makes it 4 wins and 6 losses for +100 pips.
【Trading Rules】Euro-Dollar Late-Night Trade
■Currency pair: EUR/USD
■Timeframe: 1-hour chart
■Trading rules：
- Open the EUR/USD chart at 23:00 and enter only if the 22:00 hourly Heikin-Ashi is reversing
- If a bearish candle becomes a bullish candle, buy; if bullish becomes bearish, sell
- Take profit at +100 pips, stop loss at −50 pips with an OCO settlement
- Each side's maximum open position is 1. Do not hold multiple positions in the same direction
■Backtesting results over the past two years show a clean upward trend
Entering the Zero-Annual Day Mode of Fear
A major event occurred with double positions and swaps.
Previously, I mentioned that the AUD/JPY buy swap on the Everyone’s FX site dropped from 40 to 35, and on June 6 it finally dropped to 30.
The causes of swap fluctuations are:
- Exchange rate movements
- Policy interest rate differentials
However, this time both factors are at play. AUD/JPY has been on a downward trend, and the policy rate on June 4 fell from 1.50% to 1.25%.
DMMFX's AUD/JPY sell swap is also 30 pips, so with current conditions there is no income from hedging.
I considered unwinding the hedges immediately, but as long as the daily income is not negative, I plan to keep it as is for a while.
NZD/JPY swap paid by DMMFX was 43 pips in summer 2017 and is now down to 28 pips.
Since predicting the future is difficult, I’ve decided only to set “collect and pay reversed, settle all immediately” as a rule and observe the situation.
Bonus
I fell in love with this bag at first sight and bought it immediately.
I love the contrast of size and color.
Ms. Yuu Kinosato’s FX technique videos are available at【Money Up
1.【FX Video】The Chariner-Charin Method Basic Edition—Just Leave It and Money Comes In Daily
A video where Ms. Yuu Kinosato demonstrates the fundamentals of hedged swaps and carry methods. By hedging under certain conditions, money comes in little by little every day, making it a truly hands-off method that even busy people can execute. It also discusses crucial money management.
・【FX Video】The Chariner-Charin Method Basic Edition—Just Leave It and Money Comes In Daily
2.【FX Video】Daily Profits from Passive Management—Practice Edition｜Ms. Yuu Kinosato’s Account, Currency Pairs, Near-Death Experience
A practical video showing hedged swaps and carry methods Ms. Yuu Kinosato actually uses. Simply hedging under certain conditions can yield daily small profits. It reveals the broker, currency pairs, and results she uses.
3.【FX Video】1 Minute a Day! The Simple Heikin-Ashi Method Recommended by Ms. Yuu Kinosato
I asked the FX攻略.com editorial staff to learn the results reported in this serialized column. Shy Ms. Kinosato appears in animation?! It’s an extremely simple method, and when viewed in video, the clarity is remarkable.
・【FX Video】1 Minute a Day! The Simple Heikin-Ashi Method Recommended by Ms. Yuu Kinosato
4.【FX Video】Ms. Yuu Kinosato Special Interview! Past Failures, Turning Point to the Winning Group, Tips for Building Methods
This is an interview exploring Ms. Kinosato’s FX history. It covers how she arrived at her current method, past failures, and a message for beginners. Those who are losing without finding a suitable method, or who have some good runs but overall are losing, may gain some insights.
Yuu Kinosato (Kizato Yuu) Profile
About 10 years in FX. No detailed technical analysis, aims for profit through probability and psychology. Steady compounding via swap carry trades. A free-spirited person interested in spirituality and music. Based in Tokyo.
Official site：Ms. Yuu Kinosato’s Swap FX Life
Twitter：https://twitter.com/KizatoFX
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