Weekly Summary Episode 4｜Shiroyagi's EA Operation Diary｜FX3EA net total 0 yen, unrealized total from −37,486 yen to −94,459 yen (9/7–9/11)

This is the 4th weekly summary. This week, none of the five forward-measured products had daily entries, settlements were zero, and realized P/L were all ±0 yen. The only movement was additional buys, and the end-of-week unrealized P/L across FX3EA totaled −94,459 yen, widening from last week's −37,486 yen by 56,973 yen.

■This Week's Market

In the first half of the week, the market favored the yen, and in the second half, the dollar strengthened—a tug-of-war over the week. Expectations that the Bank of Japan would hasten its rate-hike pace, plus speculation that the Government Pension Investment Fund would increase allocations to domestic assets, and statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen limiting yen depreciation, contributed to the USD/JPY dropping to the 152 yen range briefly on September 9. The trend reversed on September 10, as oil prices surged amid Middle East tensions and U.S. August PPI beat expectations; along with rising U.S. long-term yields, USD/JPY recovered to the high-154s. On September 11, the U.S. August CPI was released, showing +0.4% MoM; +3.4% YoY, with core CPI at +0.3% MoM; +2.4% YoY, and core CPI MoM outpaced expectations—the strongest growth since April. As a result, expectations for a September FOMC rate hike rose to nearly 90%, USD/JPY rose to 154.48 before retreating to 153.44; the New York close was 153.73. The week’s end prices were: USD/JPY153.684, AUD/JPY110.191, NZD/JPY89.314, USD/JPY153.684, compared with last Friday (Sept 4) where the prices were: USD/JPY from 156.232 to −2.548, NZD/JPY from 91.898 to −2.584, AUD/JPY from 112.543 to −2.352, and ZAR/JPY to not listed. The Nikkei stock average rose to 66,399.84 on Sept 7, then declined for 4 trading days, closing at64,011.34, down 1,009.60 points (−1.55%) from last week’s close of 65,020.94. The S&P 500 was closed on Sept 7 for Labor Day; the Sept 11 close was7,656.98(−0.80% week-on-week) from last Friday’s 7,718.60.

■EA Weekly Performance by Item

“This week's realized P/L” is the sum of the daily P/L from Sept 7 to Sept 11 on each product’s detailed statistics (monthly). Balances and unrealized P/L are as displayed on the page from 20:35 to 20:55 on Sept 13, as markets were closed on Friday, carrying over the New York close levels from Friday.

①sheep6 AUD/JPY・NZD/JPY｜M30｜Long only, up to 6 trades

This week also had zero settlements across 5 trading days. On Sept 8 at 02:08, NZD/JPY was increased by 0.03 lots at 90.578, bringing totals to 3 trades, combined with positions built on Aug 21 (95.113, 0.01 lot) and Sept 2 (92.846, 0.02 lot), carried into the week. With NZD/JPY falling from 91.898 to 89.314, unrealized P/L widened from −6,286 to −16,535 yen. The balance is at 0.9%, and compared with the actual maximum drawdown (226,351 yen; 26.62%), it remains well under 10%.

②Kuroyagi-san, Evolution Version AUD/JPY｜M30｜MA＋BB reversal, averaging down & swap

This week, settlements were also zero. Following the decline in AUD/JPY, buys were added on Sept 7 at 11:18 (111.604) and Sept 8 at 04:27 (110.794), each 0.03 lot, bringing the total to 6 trades and 0.18 lots carried over from Aug 28 (114.856) and Sept 3 (112.415). With AUD/JPY falling from 112.543 to 110.191, unrealized P/L widened from −17,954 to −47,669, a 29,715 yen decrease. At 3.0% of balance, the drawdown is about 4% of the maximum drawdown (1,245,840 yen; 29.13%), which is roughly in the mid-teens for relative drawdown.

③kotukotu-EX ZAR/JPY｜H4｜BB trend-following, averaging down & swap

Last week this EA had 10 settlements, but this week none. The September daily calendar shows only +25 yen on the 2nd and +152 yen on the 4th; balance and monthly analysis have not moved since Sept 4. The line at the top of the forward history saying “Updating results” remains 7 lines, and the number of lots held cannot be confirmed on the page. With the rand falling from 9.779 to 9.517, unrealized P/L widened from −13,246 to −30,255. It is 2.4% of the balance, and compared to the actual maximum drawdown of 202,772 yen (41.61%), it remains in the low double-digit percent range.

④Index Seven S&P500・Nikkei 225｜D1｜7-logic buy-only

There were no settlements in the aggregated period; instead, four long positions were opened on the S&P500. MT4 shows 7,722.02 at Sept 7 00:00, 7,655.81 at Sept 10 00:00, and 7,599.81 and 7,599.31 at Sept 11 00:00 (all 0.01 lots). Because the U.S. market was closed on Sept 7 due to Labor Day, most activity occurred in the latter half of the week. The weekly balance difference of +$67.00 reflects a settlement at Sept 6 22:00 (+$66.59) that is reflected in the page header and monthly analysis. This week’s realized P/L is shown as ±$0 since the measurement period is Monday to Friday. Unrealized display shows −$162.00.

⑤Rand Builder ZAR/JPY｜Swap + compound interest, 3-layer downtrend defense

At the start of the week, rand yen declines prompted additions to the positions. On Sept 7, 4 trades (09:24 at 9.744, 0.05 lot; 11:09 at 9.702, 0.05; 11:09 at 9.701, 0.01; 11:27 at 9.664, 0.05), and on Sept 8, 2 more trades (02:17 at 9.622, 0.05; 05:15 at 9.582, 0.01) were added, totaling 13 trades and 0.78 lots. From Sept 9 onward, neither additions nor settlements occurred. Unrealized P/L widened from −9,033 to −24,106, and the maximum drawdown field updated to 47.88% to 48.12% (24,106). About 2.4% of the initial capital, compared with the designed maximum drawdown (including unrealized) of about 22.5%, remains in the single-digit percentage range. The orange line on the official operation chart (profit + current max unrealized P/L) shows near -20,000 yen, with the difference to realized P/L of 1,884 yen implying an approximate midday unrealized loss around 26,000 yen.

■This Week's Summary

FX3EA Total: This Week's Realized P/L ±0 yen / Unrealized P/L total at week end−94,459 yen
Index Seven (USD-denominated): This Week's Realized P/L ±$0 / Unrealized at week end−$162
Rand Builder (Forward): This Week's Realized P/L ±0 yen / Unrealized−24,106 yen

Last week Kotukotu-EX had +177 yen across 10 settlements, but this week all five products had no settlements, so realized P/L were all ±0. The moves were only additional buys: sheep6 added 1, Kuroyagi-san Evolution added 2, Rand Builder added 6, and Index Seven added 4. The total end-of-week unrealized loss of −94,459 yen widened from last week’s −37,486 yen by 56,973 yen, with the breakdown: Kuroyagi-san Evolution −47,669 yen, Kotukotu-EX −30,255 yen, sheep6 −16,535 yen. The averaging-down EA continued to accumulate positions during a downtrend, leaving unrealized losses while realized P/L remained flat. Balances show 0.9–3.0% of balance, while the actual maximum drawdown across each EA (ranging from 200k to 1.24M yen) remains roughly 4–15%.No issues with any EA this week as well. Also, tomorrow at 21:00.

■Next Week’s Factors

Next week features Japan and the United States holding financial policy meetings. The U.S. FOMC meets on Sept 15–16, with the policy rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference on the 16th. With oil prices high and inflation metrics strong, market expectations for a rate hike have risen; as of Sept 11, market pricing for a move nearly reached 90%. On the 16th, U.S. August retail sales will also be released. Japan’s BoJ policy meeting is Sept 17–18, with results and Governor Ueda's press conference on the 18th, and August nationwide CPI data released the morning of the same day. Markets increasingly expect a 0.25% rate hike to bring policy rate to 1.25%. On Sept 14, Japan’s July industrial production data and Sept 17 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and initial jobless claims are scheduled. The currency cross moves were driven by expectations for U.S.-Japan policy and oil prices; next week’s materials will likely focus on the same themes. Note that there are no South Africa-specific items on the Sept 14–18 plan.

■EA List

• sheep6(Win rate 92.84% / PF 5.39 / max DD 26.58%)
• Steady Growth Kuroyagi-san Evolution AUDJPY(Win rate 70.13% / PF 1.17 / max DD 28.98%)
• kotukotu-EX ZARJPY(Win rate 73.74% / PF 1.67 / max DD 41.61%)
• Index Seven ｜ Nikkei 225 & S&P500(Measurement: 3 months)
• Rand Builder Rand Builder(Forward measurement: Day 24)

This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The figures shown are from GogoJungle forward measurement (demo account) and do not guarantee future performance.