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TriParity Labs - Kaz
08/15/2026 04:21
Release： 08/15/2026 04:21
Update： 08/15/2026 04:21
TriParity Labs - Kaz
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 10 million - 50 million JPY
We are developing analytical tools to read the “ distortions” that are hard to see with just a single currency pair, by analyzing multiple price relationships. The goal is not merely to forecast correctly, but to narrow the market conditions to watch and make it easier to decide which situations to pass on. We shape only what we can genuinely want to use ourselves, after extensive verification. From childhood, I programmed games in BASIC, and after graduating from high school in Japan I moved to the United States alone. At university I studied mathematics and art, and in graduate school I studied architecture, receiving the National Mathematics Award in the field of mathematics. Currently, while working as a business consultant, I have been actively involved in stocks since 2002 and FX since 2012. In the early days I experienced substantial losses, but through that process I deeply felt the importance of the principles of “small losses,” “discipline,” and “verification first.” Since then I have built my own analysis and improvements centered on the ideas of triangular currency parity and risk management. I even fulfilled my long-cherished dream of buying a condominium in Tokyo and designing and completing a full renovation myself. In both work and investment, I value understanding the structure, designing it, and bringing it into shape. The ideas honed in those real-world experiences have been generalized into a more reproducible form in the “Intervention Aftermath” series. Focusing on price distortions, time lags, and short-term convergence phases that are likely to occur after overshoots caused by influences such as HFT and interbank markets, it is designed to enable efficient observation, screening, and judgment of those specific moments only. Chart-monitoring fatigue, impulsive entries, ending only after verification, and not having enough time due to being a part-time trader—these past mistakes and worries have become the starting point for the logic design itself. The development policy has remained consistent: “Only bring to the world tools that I myself genuinely want to use.” Rather than flashy features, the aim is to slightly improve actual decision-making, reduce unnecessary trades, and lead to more convincing buy/sell decisions.
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[30-day free version coming soon] Latest COT analysis — Large speculators remain overly bullish on the dollar, EUR and GBP continue to be oversold

COT Analysis | Read last week’s positions → Signalization → Results → This week’s latest COT

Will the excessive positioning of large speculative traders really revert?

CFTC publishesCOT (Commitments of Traders) as actual data, and we interpret it to explain “Large Speculators COT Reversion Signal, what logic generated the signal and what resultswere obtained, and this week’s latest COTup to this point.

① Last week’s COT report (raw data)

COT (Commitments of Traders)is the open interest in futures published byCFTCevery Friday. The table below showsas of August 4, 2026 (announcement on August 7),the net positions of large speculators (Non-Commercial).

CurrencyLongsShortsNetNet %OI
EUR201,847259,938−58,091−7.3%
GBP55,012112,826−57,814−23.4%
CAD13,514192,609−179,095−49.1%
JPY147,228192,701−45,473−10.8%
AUD74,385107,575−33,190−13.8%
CHF11,27044,092−32,822−30.0%
★Image 01: Original COT report published by CFTC (e.g., Japanese Yen)

Summary:Last week, large speculators werenet sellers against USD across all 6 currencies— in other words, they tilted toward buying dollars. Among them,CAD stood out (net around −180,000 contracts, %OI −49%). This “excessive tilt” is the starting point for the signals introduced next.

HOW IT WORKS

② How the tool signalizes this raw data

The key is not to use the magnitude of %OI as is.This tool quantifies each currency’s position by a z-score in comparison to its own ~3-year historical average, turning it into a numerical value.

Crucial point:
・CADappears as the largest net seller with %OI −49%,but CAD tends to be sold ordinarily,soz −1.03＝“slightly excessive”.
・ConverselyEURlooks small with %OI −7.3%, and it is rare for EUR to be sold this much.z −1.77＝historical overextension。
→“magnitude” is not the focus; it’s the currency’s anomaly (z)that matters for this tool’s perspective.

And|z|>1.0 (extreme)currencies are signaled to move toward equilibrium. Currencies that have been oversold by large speculators arelikely to be bought back (revert)— that is the idea.

CurrencyNet %OIzJudgment
EUR−7.3%−1.77Buy EURUSD (oversold → revert)
GBP−23.4%−1.35Buy GBPUSD (oversold → revert)
CAD−49.1%−1.03Sell USDCAD (CAD oversold → revert)
JPY−10.8%−0.09Wait and see (|z|≦1.0)
AUD−13.8%+0.32Wait
CHF−30.0%+0.38Wait
★Image 02: Tool panel (currency table, z, signals, entry/stop/exit)

③ Result: What happened to last week’s 3 signals?

Enter after announcement and close on the following week’s review—all three signals closed in profit direction (amounts from different operators vary, shown as gained pips).

Currency pairDirectionEntry → ExitGain
USDCADSell1.39370 → 1.38650+72 pips
EURUSDBuy1.15439 → 1.15788+35 pips
GBPUSDBuy1.35094 → 1.35516+42 pips
★Image 03: USDCAD Sell (+72 pips, TP reached)
★Image 04: EURUSD Buy (+35 pips, pullback portion)
★Image 05: GBPUSD Buy (+42 pips)

※This is a real sample from the second week of August 2026. Results cover one week and 3 signals only; they do not guarantee future performance. Currencies not triggering exits are not included. Amounts and account balance are not reflected; gains shown in pips.

④ And this week’s latest COT (announced August 14)

The latest iteration (as of August 11, 2026) shows the positioning of large speculators and the tool’s determination.

CurrencyNet %OIzJudgment
EUR−7.5%−1.77Buy EURUSD (continue)
GBP−21.9%−1.26Buy GBPUSD (continue)
CAD−47.6%−0.93Wait toward reversal (from extreme zone)
JPY−10.7%−0.09Wait
AUD−14.7%+0.28Wait
CHF−29.5%+0.44Wait
Note: The logic was “validated” for one week

Last week, CAD showed extreme selling by large speculators (z −1.03) → tool suggested “sell USDCAD” → +72 pips. And this week, CAD’s tilt moved to z −0.93, exiting the extreme zone“Wait”. This is a concreteexample of overextension → reversionthat occurred. Meanwhile, EUR and GBP remain oversold,signal to buy continues.

Of course, one week is a short sample. Therefore this tool also offers to display the achievement rate to each take-profit line (T1/T2/T3), and a setting to plot past signals on the chart. It enables you to verify trends over a longer period with your own eyes.

Entry/Stop/Take targets andachievement rate- weeklyrebalancing plan, a complete panel, andweekly updates from next week onwardare—

▼ First30-day free trialto try on your own screen.

TRIAL｜30 days free — coming soon

No feature restrictions. All features available free for 30 days.After the period ends, chart display stops. Free of charge, verify this week and next week’s COT signals with your own eyes.

正式版｜Available now (limited-time introductory pricing)
First 10 copies ¥16,800 thereafter ¥19,800 → ¥24,800 (earlier is cheaper)
※This tool displays signals and is not investment advice or solicitation. It is in the form of an EA file, but it does not perform automated trading or order placement.
※COT figures are based on CFTC published data (as of August 4 and August 11, 2026). The performance shown is from a real-week sample (1 week, 3 signals) and does not guarantee future results. Losses may occur due to market movement.
※Final investment decisions should be made at your own responsibility. Prices, specifications, release timing, and trial terms are subject to change without notice. Copyright (c) 2026 TriParity Labs - K.Yamamoto