The Future Direction of Foreign Exchange Markets 第107回［田嶋智太郎］
Tomotaro Tajima (Tajima Tomotaro) Profile
Economic analyst. CEO of Alfinaunts. Born in 1964 in Tokyo. After graduating from Keio University, he switched careers following a stint at the current Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. He analyzes and researches a wide range from finance and the economy in general to strategic corporate management, and even personal asset formation and fund management. He serves as a lecturer for seminars and trainings hosted by private companies, financial institutions, newspapers, local governments, and various business associations, with about 150 speeches per year. He has published numerous serialized articles and comments in print media such as Weekly Gendai “Rules of Internet Trading” and Examina “Money Maestro Training Course.” He has written columns on many websites covering stocks, foreign exchange, etc., and is highly regarded as a stock and FX strategist. He has also undertaken writing for the Home Economics section of “Gendai Yōgo no Kiso Chishiki” (Knowledge of Contemporary Use) by Freemen’s Association. After regular appearances on TV (TV Asahi “Yajiuma Plus,” BS Asahi “Sunday Online”) and radio (MBS “Tsuyoshi’s Asa-ichi Radio”), he now serves as a regular commentator on Nikkei CNBC “Market Wrap,” and Daiwa Securities Information TV “Economy Marche.” His major DVDs include “Easily Understandable: Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Introduction” and “Easily Understandable: Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Practical Technical Analysis.” His notable books include “Wealth Review Manual” (Paru Publishing), “FX Chart ‘Profit’ Equation” (Alchemix), “Why Can FX Make You Asset Rich?” (Texts), among many others. The latest publication is “Profit by Riding the Rising U.S. Economy” (Freeman’s).
*This article is a reprint and re-edit from FX攻略.com March 2019 issue. Please note that the market information stated in the text may differ from current market conditions.
The Year-End 2018 So Overly Pessimistic
I extend my sincere New Year greetings. As you can see, however, I am writing this in late December 2018, and under the circumstances of ongoing drastic daily declines in U.S. and Japanese stocks, I simply feel exhausted and cannot bring myself to say “let’s greet a bright new year.”
Market insiders frequently talk about “now is the bottom of the downtrend,” but in reality there seems to be little sign of a turn. As the U.S. and Japanese stock prices fall, the dollar/yen, which had remained relatively firm, has temporarily dipped below 111 yen as of the time of writing.
In this situation, some market participants foresee that in 2019 the Nikkei Stock Average could fall to the 17,000 range and the dollar/yen could push down to around 107 yen, but isn’t this a bit too pessimistic? Of course, not a few market participants share such views.
After all, at the end of 2018, the U.S. economy was still expanding smoothly, with solid employment and consumption. Of course, the security issues behind the U.S.-China trade tensions are not easily resolved, but there is a possibility that the publicly stated trade issues could reach a compromise with certain concessions from China.
Nevertheless, as of the writing time, both the NY Dow and the Nikkei stock average were hitting year-to-date lows, and the relief rally in yen appreciation for risk aversion was making a comeback.
