Enmusubi AI Development Story Part 5 — Why we built it as an "explainable AI" (mistrust of the black box)
Last time, we limited AI authority to only stopping new buys and waiting. This time, the follow-up—Why make that judgment visible. I cannot trust a “black box” that hides the reason behind results. This isn’t merely a technical discussion; it is a tale to help people waiting through drawdowns keep their minds intact.for the person waiting with unrealized losses.
Many automated trading systems and AI signals in the world only show arrows and trading results, and do not reveal “why they decided this.”When things are going well, that may be fine. The problem arises during the tough times.
Unrealized losses grow. Signals stop. When the reasons aren’t visible, people are swallowed by the worst question.“Is this broken, or are we just waiting?”. Anxiety swells without being able to judge, and oftenthey manually cut out right before a rebound. The black box breaks a person’s mindset even before performance.
Enmusubi AI is of a type that does not use stop-loss. It bears unrealized losses and waits for a recovery. By design, this meansthe time when people are most anxious lasts the longest.
Within that anxiety, if the EA said nothing at all, “Why still hold it, why not buy now?” would be unknown, and simply watching unrealized losses—no matter how numerically sound—would lead people to act first and ruin the recovery scenario. So Iembedded explainability not as a cosmetic feature but as a safety mechanism.
“Right now it isflowering-coldtherefore we are not making new buys.” If the reasons are visible, even during drawdown periods you cansettle your mind and wait. The explanations are not adornments to the EA butrisk management on the human side.
So, how can we explain it? The answer is simple:make it possible to state the reasons. Enmusubi AI does not operate on vague machine learning intuitions but on a chain of rules like “If ○○, then △△.”Therefore, every judgment has a corresponding reason, which can be translated into Japanese as-is.
“With volatility suddenly widening, we skipped the new buy.” “This instrument is lagging, so it’s a candidate to buy.” Each move has a backed reason. It appears on a chart panel called “Enmusubi Bath” (縁結び処). Rather than trying to look clever, we chosethe ability to always articulate the reason.
※“Enmusubi Bath” is a panel that displays the reasons for judgments in Japanese. The screen image is a work in progress and may differ from the actual product.
To be honest, this also serves as a reprimand to my past self. When I was losing big with discretion, there were many trades I could not explain to myself about why I bought.“Why did I buy it? I can’t explain it to myself.”It felt like it would rise for some vague reason, everyone was buying—my emotions moved my hand.
Judgments that cannot be explained cannot be reviewed or corrected. So now I have decided tomake the EA always state the reason. An explainable AI also serves as a mechanism to bind me, facing the market, back to the side of rules.
Choosing an explainable AI was not for boasting about performance.If you cannot see the reasons, you cannot wait. In particular, for this EA that does not cut losses, how you endure drawdown times determines success or failure. Being able to see “why I am doing this now” at any moment is what makes the design sustainable.
However, for safety, a reminder: even if the reasons are visible, unrealized losses do not disappear. Explanations are a device to keep your mind steady, not a promise of profit. The design is vulnerable to a full-scale yen appreciation and, in the worst case, could fail. Therefore, alwaysoperate with ample funds.
※This article is provided for information purposes and is not investment solicitation. The operating results shown are past performance and do not guarantee future profits. FX/CFD trading involves risk. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.