I will translate the provided HTML text to English while preserving the HTML format, and decoding entities if any. Original: 売らない、という選択 ― なぜ私は「買い特化」の自動売買を作るのか Translation: The choice not to sell ― Why I am building automated trading that specializes i
Choosing not to sell
"Aren't you going to sell?" My gold EAs are mostly buy-focused, so I often receive this question. I understand the feeling of not wanting to just watch the market fall. Today, I will write honestly about why I still choose to focus on buying.
Gold has a tendency to move upward
First, as a premise, gold tends to rise in the long run. Reasons include the currency’s value eroding over time, central banks worldwide continuing to buy gold, and it being a safe haven when uncertainty rises. There are many reasons, but the price has generally risen in multi-year increments.
From this premise, buying becomes “trading with the big trend” and selling becomes “trading against that trend.” Winning for the counter-trend side is much harder than riding the trend. I start from this as my baseline.
Selling tends to be a game of guessing the top
To profit from an uptrend by selling, you must at some point guess “this is the top.” Yet market direction, especially tops and bottoms, cannot be predicted with precision. I have tried and failed many times in the past.
Buying-focused strategy discards the idea of guessing the top from the start. It calmly buys on declines and waits for the trend to resume. It shifts from a guessing contest to a game of staying in the higher-probability side. This is the main aim of keeping the focus on buying.
Declines are fast and short; advances are slow and long
Another reason is the shape of price movement. Gold’s declines are often sharp and quick but short-lived, while increases are gradual but tend to persist longer. This asymmetry changes the meaning of time between buying and selling.
When holding a long position bought, even a sharp drop can be recovered because time works in your favor. Conversely, when holding a short position, even a small unrealized gain can vanish quickly with a rise. Time becomes the enemy. Even with the same gold, buying and selling feel completely different in terms of ease of trading.
I also write about weaknesses openly
However, buying-focused trading is not万能. Its greatest weakness is extreme vulnerability to prolonged one-way declines. If the trend premise collapses, long buys become a heavy burden.
In fact, some of my anomaly-type gold EAs couldn’t withstand long downtrends and failed. The mechanism to stop buying was weak, and even when the trend reversed, I kept buying. Buying-focused does not mean safe.
Therefore, I design the same weight for “riding the buying trend” and “where to stop.” Capital and lot size balance, rules for not chasing losses or withdrawing too deeply. Because you’re narrowing the aggressive direction, you must be strict in defense. This combination is essential for buying-focused trading to work.
Reasons I still choose buying-focused strategy
Even accounting for weaknesses, I still value its simplicity. When the action is one-way, testing becomes easier and you can more easily identify where things can break. The win rate tends to look higher, and it eases the mental burden during operation.
Trying to do both selling and buying makes the logic more complex and makes it harder to see where the market will break. Rather than trading both sides deftly with a complex setup, it is safer to add risk management in one direction aligned with the trend. This is my conclusion after many failures.
The courage not to sell
Facing a downtrend, doing nothing requires courage. Still, not going against the trend and not aiming for the top is a legitimate strategy.
Of course, buying-focused is not the only correct path. Some win with selling. However, I chose the form I can sustain: buying-focused plus strict defense. I hope this provides some design reference for you.
※ This article is provided for information purposes and is not investment solicitation. The performance results shown are past results and do not guarantee future profits. FX/CFD trading involves risks. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.