There is a solid basis for this intuition. Over the long term, gold has trended upward. Its appeal lies in being a safe-haven asset during crises, preserving value against inflation, and ongoing purchases by central banks around the world. The scarcity of physical assets supports long-term price resilience.

Because of this, there have been many instances where gold temporarily dips and then gradually makes new highs. The idea of “buying on the dip” isn’t misplaced when viewed within this long-term trend.

What I want to pause and consider is this: the fact that price has rebounded over the long term indicates a high likelihood of rebound, but that does not mean it must rebound.

In actual markets, there are weeks after a sharp drop where prices rebound quickly, and there are periods of several weeks or even months where prices stay in a low range before recovering. Today’s week may see a V-shaped recovery in a few days, or it may take a long time to rebound. “Rebound” and “when the rebound happens” are two entirely different questions.

The moment one boldly says “it will surely rebound,” the crucial factor is lost—the“time”perspective. And the main reason individual investors exit is not price direction, but this time factor.

Believing “it will rebound anyway” and holding without cutting losses. Buying more when prices fall further. The mindset itself isn’t wrong from a long-term perspective. The problem is that your margin runs out before the rebound occurs.

If losses grow, maintenance margin falls, and a forced liquidation ensues. Even if your directional forecast was correct, you’re knocked out at the bottom because you didn’t survive long enough. This is the most common way people lose. Ironically, prices often recover right after they force the exit.

Even with “buy the dip,” some take profits while others exit beforehand. The difference isn’t market sense but whether you can endure until the rebound with sufficient fundsCapital Designspecifically: lot size, margin cushion, and a rule like “withdraw at this point.”

The two gold EAs I’m developing take opposite approaches to this “rebound.” Differences in thinking are directly reflected in their design.

Shoukinryu does not rely on rebounds. It is designed to lock in profits quickly and not hold positions overnight. This week, profits were taken on Friday, ending the week with no positions. It avoids situations where one hesitates about whether prices will rebound.

CHAOS_GOLD, on the other hand, buys on drops to capture the rebound. This week it accumulated buys during the steep decline, and the V-shaped recovery significantly improved unrealized losses. The crucial factor here is capital design: as of the end of this week, margin maintenance stood at 6,063%. Since there was ample distance before a margin call, they could survive until the rebound and go for the recovery. Conversely, if the lot size were the same but larger, it might have been exited before a rebound.