【Market Analysis】May 19, 2026 (Tue)
On the eve of the FOMC minutes — the $4,550 range and
organizing the Strait of Hormuz risk

The session on Monday lacked major indicators, making it hard to determine direction. It held around $4,530 as a floor and recovered slightly toward $4,550 during European to US hours. Given last week’s 4% drop, this is a healthy automatic rebound, but the technical bear bias remains.

From the weekend into early week, US-Iran tensions continue. Iran’s blocking of ships near the Hormuz Strait raises oil supply concerns. This factor has both upside and downside implications for gold, so here is a breakdown.

Currently, the dominant path is “oil price rise → inflation rebound → rate hike expectations.” The effect of inflation-driven rate pressures on gold is greater than the risk-off buybacks. However, if the situation worsens further and military action becomes plausible, risk-off buying could surge rapidly.

Today’s indicators are all of low to medium importance and not likely to move gold dramatically on their own. However, numbers far from prior values (housing starts at 1.5 million) or strong consumption could fuel Fed rate hike speculation. The focus remains on tomorrow’s minutes, with today likely to be a day of pre-minutes position adjustments.

Two housing indicators today, but market attention is fully on tomorrow’s FOMC minutes. Expect activity to remain within $4,530–$4,577, with no clear direction until the minutes are released.

New factor: Hormuz Strait tension between the US and Iran. The path oil price up → inflation concerns weighs on gold’s upside, but rising geopolitical risk also supports gold’s downside limitation. The focus remains on Wednesday’s minutes.

Both EAs continue normal operation. Avoid excessive manual intervention and monitor around $4,577 tonight while awaiting tomorrow’s minutes.