【Next Week Market Forecast】Gold (XAUUSD) May 18–22, 2026
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AUTHOR
Risa Asahina
Developer of Gold-only EA “Shōkinryū” and “CHAOS_GOLD_LISKOFF_MT5.” After experiencing significant losses in discretionary trading, shifted to emotion-free, rule-based automated trading. Adheres to developing EAs that endure 11 years of backtesting.
▶ Read the self-introduction article
CURRENT STATUS
Weekend status: Near the cliff for week-over-week close around $4,500
Weekend close (5/16)
$4,530
nearby
Recent support
$4,500
psychological milestone
Recent resistance
$4,655
100SMA (4H)
Last week (5/12–16), gold fell about 4% in response to back-to-back upside surprises in U.S. CPI and PPI. The weekend closed around $4,530, approaching the psychological level of $4,500.
On the 4-hour chart, price remains below both the 100 SMA ($4,655) and the 200 SMA ($4,699), indicating a short-term bearish bias from a technical perspective. Whether $4,500 holds or breaks will be the main focus for next week.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Key economic indicators and events next week
Wed May 20 | FOMC Minutes
This week's biggest event. Minutes from the previous month's FOMC will be released, focusing on the Fed's internal temperature toward inflation persistence and any mention of resuming rate hikes. If the tone is hawkish, dollar rises and gold declines; if dovish, that could be a rebound catalyst. Given CPI and PPI were hotter than expected, the content could trigger significant price moves depending on the details.
Thu May 21 | Initial Jobless Claims + PMI (Flash)
Fri May 22 | UM Inflation Expectations (Flash)
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Next week's technical outlook: test of $4,500 support likely
Support zone: $4,500 / $4,380
$4,500 has repeatedly served as a psychological rally point in 2026 gold prices. If price clearly breaks this level on both weekly and daily charts, the next downside target could be the monthly support lower bound of $4,380. Conversely, a buying dip in this zone could lead to a potential pullback to $4,600–$4,655 within the week.
Resistance: $4,655 (100SMA) / $4,699 (200SMA)
The 100SMA sits at $4,655 and the 200SMA at $4,699 on the 4-hour chart. Price is currently below both. Even if it rebounds, a strong catalyst is needed to push above $4,655. A breakout would be more likely only if FOMC minutes contain dovish elements.
Overall technical verdict: Bearish continuation; $4,500 as a turning point
Both moving averages and price range suggest a persistent bearish bias. Whether $4,500 can hold will be a key theme next week. Monitor for two scenarios: holding and rebounding vs. breaking and continuing lower.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Next week's possible scenarios: be prepared for two paths
EA STRATEGY
Next week's EA operation plan
WEEKLY SUMMARY
Next week's overall takeaway
1
Current price around $4,530. Whether $4,500 holds as support is the main focus.
2
The most important event is FOMC minutes on May 20. The week's direction is likely to be determined by hawkish or dovish tilt.
3
PMI, unemployment claims on May 21; and Michigan inflation expectations on May 22 warrant attention. Inflation expectations numbers in particular could accelerate weekend selling.
4
EA operation will continue per settings. At the start of the week, confirm margin maintenance and risk settings before engaging the market.
COMMUNITY
Tell us your results of the week
In the volatile week of 5/12–16, how did your EA perform? Whether positive or negative, sharing actual movements can help others. We plan to feature responses in next week’s report as well.
▶ Here is the thread for everyone’s performance reports■ Everyone's Performance Reports
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■ Automated Trading EAs (Details & Real-time Delivery)
【 Shōkinryū 】M5 scalping ／ 11-year backtests ／ RF10
【 CHAOS_GOLD_LISKOFF_MT5 】H1 day trading ／ both long and short positions ／ PF2.96
■ Sign indicators
【 Shōkinryū Sign For MT5 】Discretionary-sign indicator ／ MT5 only
Converts Shōkinryū EA’s RSI logic into a signal for discretionary trading. Notifies you of oversold conditions for gold with arrows, popups, and push alerts.
【 GoldAI Oracle v2.0 】AI signal indicator ／ MT5 only
AI internally analyzes 52 indicators and displays buy/sell timings on the chart with arrows. It learns automatically during operation and adapts to recent market patterns.
※This article is for information purposes and not investment solicitation. The displayed performance results are past performance and do not guarantee future profits. FX/CFD trading carries risk. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
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