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Nice to meet you. My name is Risa Asahina. I am an EA developer specializing in gold (XAUUSD).
With the policy of "releasing only EAs that have endured 11 years of backtesting," I develop and publish gold-specific EAs for MT5. Not only the backtest numbers, but also real trading results are fully disclosed, and on YouTube I show the actual operation in a 24-hour live stream.
■ Products
【Shoukinryu (EA_ShoKinRyu)】
XAU/USD only / M5 scalping / long-biased / MT5 only
Net profit 2,507,755 yen / PF 1.93 / RF 9.95 / win rate 84.28% / max DD 12%
Backtest period: 2015–2026 (about 11 years)
【CHAOS_GOLD_LISKOFF_MT5】
XAU/USD only / H1 day trading / long and short positions / MT5 only (hedging account)
Net profit 6,606,?07 yen / PF 2.96 / RF 11.49 / win rate 72.07% / max DD 22%
Anomaly strategy (entries at 21:00, 18:00, 04:00 Japan time) / active only on Mon, Tue, Wed, Fri
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Creation of EAs and indicators, MT4⇄MT5 source code conversion, sale of base code for EA development (MQL4/MQL5). Please feel free to contact via the GoGoJungle message feature with your requests.
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Market Analysis May 15, 2026 ─ How will gold move ahead of the U.S.-China summit with a "constructive agreement"? Range battle around $4,680–$4,710 ahead of the NY Fed index
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MARKET ANALYSIS ■ 2026.05.15 (FRI)
【Market Analysis】May 15, 2026 (Friday) How will gold move in the U.S.-China summit's "constructive agreement"? Range battle between $4,680 and $4,710 ahead of the NY Fed index
Developer of dedicated EA for Gold (XAUUSD) 'Shoukinryu' and 'CHAOS_GOLD_LISKOFF_MT5'. After experiencing significant losses in discretionary trading, shifted to emotion-free, rule-based automated trading. Commitment to EA development that withstands 11 years of backtesting.
U.S.-China summit Day 1: Framework of “constructive, strategic, and stable” agreement / Risk-on continues
Today at 21:30: U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Index (May) to be released
■ Current market environment — two materials converging
Gold has settled after large fluctuations in the early part of this week, and as of May 15 remains in a range around $4,680–$4,710. Two themes are proceeding simultaneously to keep this level in place.
① U.S. Retail Sales (5/14): Continued strong consumption
Month-over-month +0.5%, in line with expectations. Three months of positive growth confirm underlying consumption strength. Although there was no surprise, the idea that “strong consumption means no rush to cut rates” remains, functioning as a cap on gold.
② U.S.-China Summit (5/14–15, Beijing): De-escalation of geopolitical risk
Trump and Xi Jinping met. Day 1 (5/14) talks agreed within a framework of “constructive, strategic, and stable relations.” Trump stated on Fox News that Xi agreed to purchase soybeans, LNG, and 200 Boeing aircraft.
As a result of these two factors overlapping, the current market is in a tug-of-war between bullish catalysts (strong consumption) and risk-on (improved U.S.-China relations). Clear trends are hard to form, and the market tends to stay in a range.
■ U.S.-China Summit — Organizing the impact on gold
U.S.-China relations are a key fundamental factor for gold. When tensions rise, safe-haven demand increases and gold is bought; when tensions ease, safe-haven demand eases and gold is sold.
Agreement details and potential impact pathways for gold
Point: both “an agreement exists” and “no agreement yet” coexist
The purchases Trump announced (soybeans, LNG, Boeing jets) are positive, but they did not reach the market’s top priority issue—significant tariff reductions. There is reassurance that the worst-case scenario is avoided, but it cannot be said that the trade war has fully ended.
This state of “de-escalation but not completed” is the main reason gold remains in the current range without sharp drops or surges.
Today (5/15) the second day of talks continues, and additional headlines may come. If there is a tariff-decrease agreement, risk to the downside below $4,650 could occur; if negotiations break down or stall, a rebound above $4,760 could be possible as safe-haven demand returns.
■ 7:30 PM today NY Fed Manufacturing Index (May) — Three scenarios
What is the NY Fed Manufacturing Index:An index of the current situation in New York State manufacturing; above 0 indicates expansion. April registered +11.0, the highest in five months, signaling a manufacturing recovery trend.
The +11.0 in April was a five-month high, but the tariff policy impact will become fully evident from here. The May data will be watched to gauge how U.S.-China negotiations affected corporate sentiment.
Nevertheless, the impact of this indicator alone is often limited. The market’s main driver remains “further updates on U.S.-China talks,” and if headlines align with the NY Fed reading around 21:30, price moves could be larger.
■ Today’s price range and key levels
Gold price range image for today (5/15)
Upper resistance: $4,730〜$4,760
Target level in a scenario where U.S.-China talks stall or struggle. If safe-haven demand returns, it could break through the current range’s upper limit.
Lower support: $4,630〜$4,650
Level tested if there is a concrete agreement to reduce tariffs. If risk-on accelerates, funds could flow away from safe assets more quickly.
Either direction will be triggered by “further U.S.-China summit headlines.” If headlines align with the NY Fed and indicators, price movement may be larger than usual, so manage positions carefully.
■ Points for Friday and weekend close
Today is Friday, a typical time for institutions to adjust positions, making risk management more important through the late week.
1
Real-time confirmation of U.S.-China summit headlines
This political news is not on the economic indicators calendar. Keeping alerts on your phone and monitoring specialized forex sites helps prepare for rapid changes before weekend closes.
2
Around 21:30, be mindful of position holdings
Timing of the NY Fed release may coincide with headlines. For discretionary traders, pre-commit position sizing at this time helps prevent panic decisions.
3
Understand weekend rollover risk
Final U.S.-China summit conclusions may come over the weekend. Weekend rollover carries Monday opening risk, so decide how much to hold into the close.
Automated trading (EA) makes decisions according to its design, but for discretionary trading, having a pre-set “decision rule” before the weekend is the best way to prevent emotional judgments.
■ Today’s summary
▶
Gold in a $4,680–$4,710 range. If U.S.-China summit yields a “constructive agreement,” risk-on continues and safe-haven demand eases
▶
No major tariff-decrease agreement; remains in “de-escalation.” If additional headlines appear, expect moves below $4,650 or above $4,760
▶
Today at 21:30 NY Fed index has limited standalone impact, but headlines may amplify moves
▶
Key tasks: manage Friday’s positions and anticipate weekend risk
The direction of the market today is determined not by indicators but by headlines. While watching for continued U.S.-China summit headlines, monitor whether prices break out of the $4,680–$4,710 range to the upside or downside.
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【 Shoukinryu Sign For MT5 】Discretionary signal indicator ／ MT5 only
Converts RSI logic of Shoukinryu EA into signals for discretionary trading. Notifies when gold is oversold via arrows, pop-ups, and push notifications.
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AI integrates 52 indicators internally and displays buy/sell timing on the chart with arrows. Learns automatically while active to adapt to recent market patterns.
Book information Learn EA operation knowledge thoroughly in a book
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