[Next Week Market Outlook] May Week 3 (5/12–5/16) Read CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales
Next Week's Gold Price Forecast
Week 3 of May (5/12–5/16)
This Week's Trend and Current Position
Gold moved from around $4,520 at the week's start during Japan's three-day holiday due to a sharp miss in the ADP employment data (forecast +140k vs actual +62k), soaring to $4,697. Since then, prices have held near the high around $4,715 toward the weekend.
NFP (US employment) came in at +115k vs the forecast +55k, but gold did not fall sharply. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3% and the slower pace of wage growth signaled that “jobs increased in quantity but not quality,” resulting in limited downside pressure.
Next Week's Economic Calendar
This is the week's focal indicator. Market expectations are for +3.6–3.8%, higher than the prior reading, suggesting tariff-related inflation is starting to reflect in prices.
The CPI market story hinges on the tug-of-war between tariff-driven inflation and expectations for Fed rate cuts. Even if inflation comes in higher, if the interpretation is that tariffs are the cause, it may not necessarily be negative for gold—the CPI is tricky this time.
PPI shows price trends that manufacturers receive and acts as a leading indicator for CPI. Since it is released the day after CPI, it tends to follow the CPI-driven direction. If core PPI rises again, inflation's persistence may be reinforced, potentially sustaining selling pressure on gold.
Retail sales: An important indicator of consumer behavior. It will show whether tariff-induced price increases are suppressing personal consumption. Weaker-than-expected data favors gold due to recession fears; stronger data may pressure gold on dollar strength.
Initial jobless claims: Last week around 200k, labor market remains solid. If there is no big change, market impact is limited. A sharp rise (over 240k) could signal a worsening economy and may be supportive for gold.
Empire State Manufacturing and Industrial Production gauge the current state of the economy. They have limited direct impact on gold, but weak results could contribute to a risk-off flow, potentially supporting gold. With the weekend approaching, markets often digest CPI and PPI in this window.
Next Week's Gold Scenario
This time there is a unique situation of inflation driven by tariffs. If inflation increases but is interpreted as inflation caused by tariffs rather than as a necessity for Fed rate hikes, the market consensus may lean toward the Fed remaining on hold. Even if CPI comes in higher than expected, gold may not necessarily drop depending on how the market interprets the data.
Technicals: Next Week's Gold Perspective
Gold is currently holding a high range with the 21-day SMA at $4,698 as support. After CPI, upside could target $4,800–$4,900, while downside support near $4,650–$4,600 remains in focus.
Since the surge in May was driven by tariff-related uncertainties and Middle East developments, next week’s CPI result will provide a clear fundamental check. It’s prudent to avoid large positions before the CPI announcement and use a post-announcement entry after confirming the direction 10–15 minutes after the release.
Next Week's Practical Trading Plan
- After CPI release, wait 10–15 minutes for the initial volatility to settle before entering
- Look for pullbacks around $4,730–$4,750
- Target: $4,800–$4,850
- Stop loss: $4,680 (if the 21-day SMA is decisively breached)
- Don’t chase the initial drop
- Buy on a bounce near strong support zone around $4,650–$4,680
- If inflation is tariff-driven, a sharp drop could still present buying opportunities
- Avoid aggressive selling below $4,600
Weekly Summary
Significant downside surprise: target $4,800–$4,900
In-line: range of $4,680–$4,750 continues
Significant upside surprise: price could adjust to $4,600–$4,650
In all scenarios, to avoid being trapped by post-CPI whipsaw, the basic strategy for next week is to wait 10–15 minutes after the release to confirm the direction before entering.
This article is for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own investment decisions at your own risk.
※This article is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute investment solicitation. Investment decisions are your own responsibility. Forex/CFD trading is risky.