【Dollar/Yen】Even with intervention twice, it cannot be pushed down — still, the 154 yen range is in sight
Dollar/yen is currently around 156.8.
There were two interventions. Even so, it hasn’t fallen as much as expected. This is the reality of the current market.
Results of the two interventions
From the 160s, two interventions were made, and it was driven down to around the 155 area temporarily.
However, it later recovered to around the 157 area.
Honestly, my impression is that after two interventions, it’s this much drop. In previous interventions, it dropped by several yen, but this time the rebound is fast.
However, this does not mean “it won’t go down.” It means “it hasn’t fallen completely yet.”
The rebound to 157 was predictable
As written in the previous article, the rebound after the sharp drop following intervention was within expectations.
After a sharp drop, a rebound always occurs: profit-taking by sellers, short-covering by buyers, and pullbacks by buyers. These overlap to produce a temporary rebound.
Returning to around 157 is a natural move. The issue begins from here.
Anticipating a scenario that tests the new low from here
It has retraced to 157. But I see this as the top.
There are three reasons.
① The effect of intervention works gradually
Right after intervention, retracements are common. But the real effect of intervention appears later. Fear of “there may be another intervention soon” makes it hard to enter long positions. If no new longs enter, the price will naturally fall.
② MA has completely turned downward
Looking at the 4-hour chart, moving averages are clearly lined up downward. Even if it retraces, it is restrained by the MA and bounces back. An MA sits near around 157, acting as resistance.
③ Fundamentals point toward yen appreciation
BOJ tightening bias, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. This setup hasn’t changed. Even without intervention, the fundamentals are exerting downward pressure on USD/JPY.
Target in the 154 yen area
For now, the target isin the 154 yen area.
Around 155 yen is the recent low touched due to the intervention. If it clearly breaks this level, the 154 yen area will come into view.
Beyond that, 152–153 yen might come into view, but first I’m watching for the 154 yen area to be reached.
Current strategy
① Continued selling on rallies
The basic strategy remains the same. The selling zone is where it retraces to around 157. As long as the MA is lined downward, continue selling on rallies.
② Do not chase shorts
Chasing shorts from the 156 area is risky. There is a possibility of another move higher. It’s better to sell after drawing back to the 157 area for a better risk-reward.
③ Long positions are not recommended
I understand the urge to buy dips after an intervention. But long positions in an intervention-driven market carry the risk of being knocked down again even if prices rise. The risk-reward is too poor.
④ Enforce stricter lot management
Intervention markets have unusually high volatility. With normal lots, stop losses can be hit in an instant. Use smaller-than-usual lot sizes and set wider stops.
Summary
・There were two interventions, but the drop wasn’t as deep as expected
・Rebound to 157 was within expectations
・From here, an unfold that tests new lows is anticipated
・Target in the 154 yen area; continue selling on rallies. Sell after pulling back to the 157 area
・Chasing shorts is forbidden. Longs are not recommended
・In intervention markets, use smaller lots
After an intervention, it can take time for the market to gain direction. Stay patient, wait for a rebound, and follow the direction indicated by the MA.
【Two selectable courses】
Materials only (19,800 yen)
→ A manual systematizing 12 years of techniques → For those who want to learn at their own pace
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/75266
One-on-one coaching (29,800 yen)
→ Materials PDF + Community invitation → Real-time market environment awareness
→ Ask questions anytime with Kurama
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/75837?via=users
Honestly, if you seriously want to win, consulting is the only option. Reading materials and feeling like you understand won’t help as much as actually trading side-by-side until you can do it. If you’re unsure, starting with the materials is okay. ButIf you don’t want to take detours, go straight to consulting.
【Counter-trend set】
→ Zone detection + reversal signals. When both align, a counter-trend is formed
→ For those who want to use counter-trend strategies in addition to trend-following
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/78037?via=users_products
