[Breaking News] Continued intervention or not? Dollar-yen at the 155.00 line, defense and offense to be tested; "buying on reversal signals" also in view

The USD/JPY moved sharply once again.

Today, USD/JPY dropped about 3 yen in a short period, briefly entering the 155 yen territory. In the market, speculation is rapidly rising that “the government and the Bank of Japan intervened again.”

What’s drawing attention from this move is the突破 of the “155.5 yen line” on April 30, May 1, and May 4, which had been a point of focus several times already.

Around this area, yen buying tends to come in, making it a turning point in the market. This time as well, after breaking below 155.5 yen, stop orders were swept in and the yen strengthened rapidly.

Defense and offense at the 155.00 yen line

Currently, market eyes are focused on whether “the 155.00 yen level can be maintained.”

This line is not just a milestone number, but

• near the lower end of the previous intervention

• a take-profit point for short-term players

• an entry line for dip-buying participants

and is a price level that tends to be watched closely.

In fact, in the lower- to mid-155s, the decline appears to be stalling, and views are emerging that “the first wave of the intervention shock may be over for now.”

“Reversal-buying” also starting to appear

However, from a trader’s psychology, this is an extremely difficult phase.

In the recent interventions,

• rebound after a sharp fall

• short-covering

• recovery within a few hours to half a day

there have been moves like these, and buying targeting a rebound near 155 yen has begun to enter the market.

In other words, the current situation is a tug-of-war between “additional intervention alarms selling” and “dip-buying aiming for a reversal.”

The thin liquidity unique to the Golden Week market is also dangerous

Moreover, it is during Golden Week now.

With fewer market participants and reduced liquidity, prices are more prone to jump than usual. In other words, not just tens of pips, but a sharp move of 1–3 yen could continue as an abnormal price movement.

Future focus

The biggest focus going forward is

• whether the 155.00 yen level is clearly breached

• or whether it returns again toward 157 yen

These are the two points.

If 155 yen is completely broken, the next targets could be in the 154 yen area.

Conversely, if defense near 155 yen triggers a sharp rebound, the market may again be mindful of the past pattern that “after intervention it eventually returns.”

Right now, the USD/JPY is in an “intervention market” itself. ??