【Method Logic】The legendary trader's most valued concept, the expected value is not the win rate but the rate of increase

【Logic of the Method】The legendary trader's top priority: expected value is not "win rate" but "rate of increase"

【Trading with the same perspective as legendary traders】
Legendary traders like Buffett and Soros also say this
“Only enter where the expected value is high, where you will likely win, and repeat the same trades calmly. Do not touch difficult markets.”
Even if you only follow this, you’ll start earning, yet more than 90% of traders cannot do it…

Words of professional traders
“When you enter, you first want to see unrealized gains, a place where they rise”

As I have mentioned in many articles
In scalping, you want to enter at a place that will quickly become positive

Conversely, if you cannot take positions that become positive quickly after entry, it’s tough

So how can we find such places as a method?

If you chase “win rate” too much, you won’t see the essence

Even if you let unrealized losses remain, they can come back to become profitable.
Then, in terms of win rate, it would count as a “win,” so
here,
“I want to enter where unrealized gains appear first, at a place where that happens”
is not consistent

I want to derive a place where gains occur soon after entry within the method
However, of course, that does not mean it can be done 100% of the time

My method is,
I want to enter at a place where gains appear soon after entry, but
even if that’s not possible, at least
enter at a place with a high probability that there will be a first unrealized gain before hitting stop loss
based on this idea, it’s constructed


The mentor's method as a professional trader is built on the same idea, and I learned this mindset,
I use a method that combines the two methods of my mentor with what I like
My mentor's two methods are also currently on sale

The word “win rate”
May seem like everything at first glance, but
reaching “win rate” is actually quite complex

What the method’s logic is aiming for?

Even if the trade with the method diverges from expectations or the exit is different
a winning outcome is still a “win,”
but if the trade goes as expected but doesn’t extend and returns to stop loss, that’s a “loss”



For example, what my method’s logic aims for is
to capture “momentum,”

To reiterate
I want to enter where gains appear soon after entry, but
even if that’s not possible, at least
enter at a place with a high probability that there will be a first unrealized gain
before hitting stop lossenter at a place with a high probability that there will be a first unrealized gainbefore hitting stop loss

Regarding exits,
・Take profit if it extends
・If suspicious, exit (breakeven, small loss, small gain)
・Stop loss -1 pips to -6 pips (do not take losses larger than the maximum stop loss value -6 pips)

That said, in the second point
exit when suspicious
even if it’s at breakeven, small loss, or small gain, these are
classified oppositely in terms of win rate
Small gain = win
Small loss = loss
This shows that judging the results by “win rate” is completely meaningless for the method’s logic

Focusing on win rate and classifying outcomes accordingly is meaningless


If you chase win rate, the essence will not be visible
This is why

Rather than win rate, I want to enter at places where there is a chance unrealized gains will appear
To do that
I will enter by capturing momentum
This advantage is particularly present because it’s a 1-minute chart

For example, there are times when the market moves quickly, or there are certain times of day that tend to trend
By observing multiple pairs, you can see when the dollar is moving, when the yen is moving


Also, what is the strength of the indicators in the first place?
If you think about it, you’ll understand

Indicators cannot directly derive “win rate”
However, by using indicators, you can derive areas with high probability of rising or falling


Win with indicators not by the indicator itself, but by using it to win

Using indicators,
for example, using candlesticks together with MACD and moving averages as a chart map
Use the chart as a map

When the map looks like this, it’s likely to rise
When the map looks like this, the win rate is…

Which becomes unclear information?


In my mentor and my method’s logic,
we aim for entries where there is a high probability of some extension
It’s a logic that makes the target of +10 pips a day realistic

Even in not obvious trends, like ranging markets
With scalping, you can still take small profits in places with a bit of momentum



★★Supplementary PDF clarifying the exit methods added (4/16)★★
What the current “New Life FX Method” is
Aiming for +10 pips per day to reach 1 million yen per month (trading 2–5 hours per day)
Professional, practical 1-minute FX method ★ explained with smartphone chart images

Combining the two methods of my mentor,
・Added a logic that clearly defines entry points
・Added an explanation clarifying exit methods

■ Thinking of overseas pro traders (legendary investors Buffett and Soros)
A trading method not to win, but to earn
Trade only on places with a high probability of rising

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https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/76385

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