Financial Instruments Business Operator Kanto Finance Bureau Director (Kinsho) No. 1960 / Membership Association Japan Investment Advisers Association Membership No. 012-02323Go to GogoJungle Home
Developer of Gold (XAUUSD) dedicated EA 'Shoukinryu' and 'CHAOS_GOLD_LISKOFF_MT5'. After experiencing large losses from discretionary trading, shifted to emotion-free, rule-based automated trading. Believes in developing EAs that endure 11 years of backtests.
This week's gold moved from $4,705 at the start to around $4,541 by around 4/30 ahead of the FOMC, then rebounded sharply to $4,646 on a dovish surprise. On 5/1, liquidity dropped on GW's first day causing another dip to the $4,480s, and by the weekend settled around $4,490–$4,510. The two-stage move—FOMC shock and then first GW-day drop—characterizes this week.
Shoukinryu closed all 38 positions with a realized gain of +52,000 yen, completing this week. CHAOS_GOLD has 24 positions with unrealized loss of -315,700 yen and maintenance margin 5,849% ongoing into the weekend.
Attention: US military briefing on operations in Iran
There were reports that US authorities will brief President Trump on military operations in Iran over the weekend. Combined with continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risk is rising.
In general, rising geopolitical risk tends to be a bullish factor for gold. The first point of attention when markets reopen on Monday 5/4 is how this news is priced in.
However, Japan will be closed 5/4–5/6 for a 3-day weekend, so beware of potential one-sided price moves.
■ Next Week's Important Event Calendar
Date & Time (JST)
Event
Forecast
Importance
5/4 (Mon) – 5/6 (Wed)
Japan market three-day weekend (Greenery Day / Children's Day observed)
─
─
5/5 (Tue) 23:00
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
50–51
High
5/5 (Tue) 23:00
US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)
About 7.5 million
Medium
5/6 (Wed) 21:15
US ADP Employment (Apr)
+130k
High
5/7 (Thu) 21:30
US N新規失業保険申請件数
~220k
Medium
5/8 (Fri) 21:30
US Employment (NFP) / Unemployment Rate / Avg Hourly Earnings
NFP +180k; Unemployment 4.1–4.2%
Most Important
5/8 (Fri) 23:00
US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Flash)
─
Medium
■ Next Week's Scenario-Based Range
Scenario-based Gold Range (Next Week)
Pattern A: NFP weak + continued dovish stance
Expected range $4,600–$4,700
If NFP is below expectations (less than +150k) and unemployment rate rises, rate-cut expectations strengthen and gold may rise. Continued Iran tensions could push toward the $4,700s. There is a high possibility that 24 positions held by CHAOS_GOLD will be liquidated, triggering a lump-sum take-profit.
Pattern B: In line / continues to range
Expected range $4,500–$4,580
If NFP is broadly in line (+160k to +200k), there will be no strong move, and the price may stay in the $4,500–$4,580 range. CHAOS_GOLD remains carried, and Shoukinryu is likely to accumulate new positions.
Pattern C: NFP strong + hawkish return
Expected range $4,400–$4,500
If NFP surges (+250k or more) and average hourly wage rises more than 4.0%, expectations for rate cuts fade and gold may fall. CHAOS_GOLD losses may widen, but with a maintenance margin of 5,849% there is ample capital buffer. Shoukinryu may enter a averaging-down phase.
■ Next Week's Impact on Both EAs
Shoukinryu
This week starts with all 38 positions closed in a clean state. Thin liquidity from 5/4–5/6 will tighten entry criteria. 5/8 NFP around will auto-activate the news filter. In Patterns B–C, averaging-down construction will progress.
CHAOS_GOLD
Carrying 24 positions with unrealized loss of -315,700 yen. Operating days: 5/4–5/5–5/6–5/8 (Thursday off). Average entry price estimated at $4,580–$4,620. 5/8 NFP could be the final accounting for the carried positions this week.
■ Week Summary
・During Japan's three-day weekend (5/4–5/6), liquidity is thin and moves tend to be one-sided ・Iran tensions are seen as a gold-buying factor ・5/5 ISM Non-Manufacturing, 5/6 ADP are important indicators ahead of 5/8 NFP ・5/8 (Fri) 21:30 NFP is the week's key turning point ・CHAOS_GOLD's 24-position carry will be liquidated depending on NFP results
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