Virtual Currency Market Analysis [April 28]

1. Market Overview: Geopolitical Risks and Macro Economic Trends

Following reports that President Trump halted peace talks with Iran, expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East faded. Consequently, crude oil prices surged. With investors adopting a stronger risk-off stance, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below the $77,000 level, and long positions worth about $288 million across the market were forcibly liquidated (sold).

Bitcoin daily chart

This Monday, Bitcoin attempted for the third time this month to break above the $80,000 threshold but failed. After rising to as high as $79,500, a combination of rising oil prices due to stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks, and caution ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC) this week led to a broad risk-asset sell-off and a sharp decline.

Among altcoins, Ethereum (ETH) stood out for its weakness, dropping 3.3% from the previous day to $2,287. Other major currencies also fell across the board, with Solana (SOL) around $84, down 3%; XRP at $1.39, down 2.8%; and BNB at $623, down 2%.

Ethereum daily chart

As the FOMC meeting to be held from April 28 to 29 approaches, the market remains in a strong risk-off mood. According to CME FedWatch Tool predictions, the target range for the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is expected to be kept at 3.50%–3.75% with 100% probability, making a rate cut almost certain to be off the table.

2. Institutional Investor and ETF Fund Flows

According to SoSoValue statistics, the U.S. physical Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $82.37 million for the week ending April 24, marking four consecutive weeks of positive growth.

April’s cumulative inflows have already surpassed $2.4 billion, an astonishing pace nearly doubling March’s total. As of Friday, the total assets under management (AUM) of Bitcoin ETFs reached $102.64 billion, implying about 1,322,094 BTC (roughly 6.3% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply) held through these products.

Physical Ethereum ETFs also saw a fund inflow of $155 million this week, marking three consecutive weeks of net increases. Other altcoin ETFs saw Solana gain $9.4 million and XRP gain $15.7 million, indicating continued institutional interest in major coins.

3. DeFi Industry Crisis and Moves to Restore Trust

One week has passed since the unauthorized access incident at Kelp’s liquid staking platform. It appears increasingly likely that losses to depositors in the major DeFi protocol Aave will be compensated.

In response to the crisis, the industry-wide relief coalition “#DeFiUnited” was formed, with a total of 14 groups expressing support. Specifically, Arbitrum (frozen around 30,000 ETH), Mantle (3,000 ETH loan facility), ConsenSys and Joseph Lubin (30,000 ETH), Aave DAO (proposed 25,000 ETH contribution), EtherFi (5,000 ETH), and individual contributions from Aave founder Stani Kulechov (5,000 ETH), among others, have pledged substantial support.

In total, about 69,642 ETH (roughly $161 million) will be used to cover victims’ losses and restore trust across the DeFi ecosystem. For users, this is a favorable outcome, but it also highlights the issue of “incentive distortions.” If private companies and DAOs consistently absorb losses after major outages, risk management awareness could weaken, and fundamental solutions remain under discussion.

4. The Rise of Bitcoin in Politics, Administration, and Military

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(2016since its inception, this report has consistently delivered the forefront of the market)