【Urgent Column】Shoukinryu’s Unrealized Losses
Have exceeded 300,000 yen

Good evening, this is Asina Risa.

This article will have a slightly different tone than usual.As of 20:00 today, 4/28 (Tue), the unrealized loss on Shoukinryu’s forward account has swelled to 349,887 yen (about 350,000 yen).Against an account balance of 1,388,955 yen, the unrealized loss rate is about 25%, a figure far exceeding the maximum drawdown of 12% listed on the product page from backtesting.

Because I operate with the stance of “I will reveal both good and bad at all times,” I will honestly convey the current situation and what I as developer am thinking as I continue to operate.

As of the end of trading day on 4/27 (Mon), there were 10 positions with unrealized loss of -13,430 yen and margin ratio 18,328%. In the past 24 hours, it expanded to 29 positions with unrealized loss -349,887 yen and margin ratio 4,813%.

It broke decisively below the lower bound of the expected range $4,670–$4,750, resulting in about a $115 rapid drop. Shoukinryu is a averaging-down system that catches oversold gold, so in a continued downward market, unrealized losses accumulate.

First, honestly.The unrealized loss rate of about 25% greatly exceeds the 12% maximum drawdown listed in 11 years of backtests.

Backtests are validations based on past data; real-world operation always carries the risk of divergence from backtests. I have explained that there is a possibility that past numbers could be exceeded, and indeed it is happening now.

I want to be transparent about this fact. I cannot say it will stay within 12%, and further deterioration is not impossible.

The situation where unrealized losses grow is the fate of averaging-down EAs. The basic structure of Shoukinryu is to hold positions with distant entry prices in a downtrend and realize profits in a rally to generate long-term returns.

And what deserves attention isthe maintenance margin ratio of 4,813%This number means you would need several thousand pips of gold decline to cause a forced liquidation. 4,813% is a cushion that can withstand more declines.

Even if unrealized losses are shocking, the account’s overall resilience is still capable of withstanding it.

I myself, at this point,am deciding to continue fully automatic operationfor the following three reasons.

1. Because the maintenance margin ratio 4,813% is far from forced liquidationand there is still room to endure.
2. With FOMC meetings coming on 4/29–30the situation could see a rebound if dovish content is released. If I manually cut losses now, I might miss that rebound.
3. In 11 years of backtesting, I have experienced several V-shaped recoveries with drops of hundreds of pips. This pattern could occur again this time.

That said, this is a judgment based on my account conditions and my mental state.I do not intend to tell everyone to “endure in the same way.”

EA operation ultimately depends on your own funds and your mental state.

To help those who also hold unrealized losses, I will outline possible actions you can actually take. There is no one right answer; decide based on your situation and readiness.

In the EA world, it is not uncommon to hide the bad times and show only the good. I believe that attitude causes the most loss of trust.

The fact that unrealized losses exceed 300,000 yen is something I would rather hide. Yet I publish daily daily reports, stream 24-hour live, and keep real accounts fully transparent because,“I will keep showing the same face in good times and bad.”I consider this the minimum responsibility to ensure long-term operation.

I cannot tell whether this situation will end in a V-shaped rebound or deteriorate further. But I will honestly share the current status, my judgments, and options now.

You can confirm Shoukinryu’s behavior in real time right now.