Gun attack at the White House press dinner and
Next week’s gold market outlook

• On Saturday night, April 25, 2026 (US time), a gunfire incident occurred at a White House press dinner held at a Hilton Hotel in Washington, D.C.Gun attack hosted by the White House press corpsA shooting occurred at the venue
• The suspect was a 31-year-old man from California who attempted to breach a security perimeter. Armed security personnel fired, and he was taken into custody on the spot
• President Trump, Vice President Pence, and the First Lady all evacuated safely. Trump subsequently held a press conference at the White House
• One Secret Service agent was shot, but saved by a ballistic vest
• The suspect faces three charges and is scheduled to appear in court Monday. Motive and target are under investigation
• Trump described the event as an “would-be assassin” and stated a firm stance that the actions of the villain cannot change, while appealing for a peaceful resolution
• The canceled dinner is planned to resume within 30 days

Fortunately, the incident concluded without harm to President Trump, cabinet members, or the First Lady. The early arrest of the suspect, lifesaving use of a ballistic vest by a staff member, and the maintenance of government functions all deviated from the worst-case scenario in a positive direction.

Nevertheless, the fact that a sitting US president faced physical danger remains a geopolitical event that markets cannot ignore. And next week will beFOMC meeting (4/29-30)・US PCE deflator (4/30)・US employment data (5/1)which will unfold during a surveillance-heavy FOMC week. Gold prices will navigate a busy week absorbing both political uncertainty and monetary policy events.

In this column, after summarizing the factual timeline of the incident, we compare it with past similar cases, outline next week’s gold scenarios, and provide guidelines for both EA traders and discretionary traders.

Some may think, “Trump is unharmed and the suspect is in custody, so the market won’t react.” However, historical similar cases show that safe-haven demand tends to rise almost automatically, regardless of the physical outcomes of the event.Regardless of the physical outcomes of the incident, safe-haven demand tends to rise almost automatically.

On July 13, 2024, during a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump was shot at; even then, markets did not suffer major damage, but gold prices jumped 2–3% the next trading day as safe-haven demand spiked.

Markets price in the underlying social instability the event reveals, not merely the outcome. Domestic political divisions, security vulnerabilities, and the risk of recurrence—these are risk premia not easily visible in numbers but reflected in prices.

This incident should be analyzed within the same framework. While physical harm was minimized,the fact that an attack targeting the sitting US president occurred will reliably increase demand for safe assets.

Across past similar cases, gold typically moves in the following cycle when the event ends without injuries or casualties.

• Immediately after the event (hours to 1 day): Safe-haven demand pushes price up by about 1–3%
• 1 day to 1 week: Consolidation at high levels, with volatility as headlines continue
• 2 weeks to 1 month: As political tensions ease, risk premia fade and focus returns to monetary policy and economic indicators
• However, if within the month a “second” related event occurs (threats, another attack, etc.), risk premia remain

This time, the likelihood is high that the incident enters a “near-miss/undamaged” cycle for now. If the window opens on Monday 4/27, in line with past patterns, we can expect$30–$60 upside gapas a possible range.

This incident adds a new layer atop gold’s existing geopolitical and financial-policy backdrop. Let’s review the main backdrop events from April.

• 4/8: Trump administration’s two-week ceasefire with Iran → gold rose to around $4,810
• 4/13: Iran talks collapse and Strait of Hormuz blockade declared → price plunged
• 4/14: US PPI miss and renewed expectations for Iran talks → price rose
• 4/21: two-week extension of ceasefire deadline
• 4/22-23: long-term yields rose and profit-taking sell-off drove price down to $4,683, then V-shaped rebound
• 4/24 close: $4,703 (about 3% weekly drop from $4,820 → large correction)

Gold has recently been swayed by two axes: “Middle East tensions” and “US monetary policy.” Now, a third risk factor—the domestic political instability in the US—joins them.Third risk factor will be added.

Notably, gold has already pulled back from the high of $4,820 to $4,703, leaving room to rise again given the geopolitical event still exerting influence.Geopolitical events after overheating cool down have room to push prices higher.

Further developments and results of FOMC, PCE, and the employment data next week will decide among three scenarios for gold prices.

Assuming Scenario B (range $4,800–$4,950) is most probable, here is an hourly forecast for Monday 4/27. This follows the past pattern of “gap up followed by further upside in Asia, then digestion of headlines in Europe and a pullback for profit-taking in NY.”

How will the FOMC events interact with this incident? Here are four points.

1. The Fed tends to tilt dovish: In periods of political instability, to prevent market turmoil, the Fed is more likely to signal additional easing (hinting at rate cuts sooner). This is supportive for gold.
2. PCE release on 4/30 has a relatively dampened impact: Typically a major inflation indicator, it may be subdued in a week dominated by geopolitical risk.
3. Employment data on 5/1 tends to be used for risk-off judgments: Strong jobs data would reassure about the economy; deterioration would amplify risk-off concerns tied to political turmoil and economic slowdown.
4. Profit-taking pressure toward the weekend (5/2-3): If political uncertainties persist into the weekend, positions may be trimmed Friday afternoon with both long profit-taking and short-covering activity possible.

Regardless, next week is expected to present a different trading environment from the usual FOMC week, and planning with that in mind is prudent.

In the face of such sudden geopolitical events, the worst action is“emotional position-taking immediately after the news”. Rewriting strategy after every new update, chasing markets on social media with full leverage, or moving stop-loss levels due to fear of losses are common pitfalls even for experienced traders.

Instead, focus on three principles to avoid unnecessary losses:

1. Confirm information from primary sources: Rumors and early social posts can be inaccurate. Always base judgments on confirmations from Reuters, AP, or major wire services
2. Stick to pre-set rules: If using EA, let it operate as designed. If discretionary, do not deviate from pre-established risk-management rules
3. Trade smaller position sizes: In high-volatility weeks, half your usual lot size is often sufficient. Prioritize avoiding catastrophic losses over missing opportunities

For EA operators, these sudden events are precisely the moment to “trust the design.” News filters, DD (drawdown) stop mechanisms, and weekend gap measures are all built-in safety features that activate automatically.Tinkering with parameters, stopping operations, or switching to a different EA in emergencies tends to amplify losses.

• The gunfire incident at the White House press dinner on 2026/04/25 concluded without harm to President Trump, cabinet members, or the First Lady
• Suspect detained early; one Secret Service member saved by a ballistic vest; government functions remained normal
• From past similar cases, gold typically rises 1–3% right after the incident even when there are no injuries
• Next week’s most probable scenario is a $4,800–$4,950 range, with a $50–$100 upside gap on Monday’s window
• FRB leaning dovish is likely to be supportive for gold
• EA trading should follow its design; safety functions (news filters, exit lines) operate automatically
• Discretionary traders should avoid new entries on Monday’s gap-up and wait for follow-up news and market calm
• If a second related event occurs, Scenario C may unfold. Monitoring headlines after Monday is essential

This frame may be updated depending on follow-up details. The latest updates will be shared on this site and YouTube.

※This article is for information purposes and is not investment solicitation. The performance results cited are past results and do not guarantee future profits. FX/CFD trading involves risk. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.