2015〜2026
How the gold market survived 11 years of volatility

11 years. Can you imagine how long that is?

From 2015 to 2026, 11 years saw events in gold markets that would be written into history. Covid Shock. US–China trade frictions. Rapid Fed rate hikes. Escalating geopolitical risks. Gold rose from the $1,000s to the $4,800s, about 4x. At the same time, there were years with declines of more than $500 within a year.

In these 11 years countless EAs were born and vanished. An EA that lasted 3 years might vanish in the 2020 Covid shock. An EA that lasted 5 years might collapse in 2022’s rapid Fed hikes. And an EA that operated around the unprecedented high $4,800 would stop functioning.

Nobunaga Rising Dragon survivedthrough all these upheavals for 11 years. This time, we will retrospectively review what happened in each era and how Nobunaga Rising Dragon overcame it in chronological order.

First, an overview of the 11 years. When organizing gold price and major events chronologically, it looks like this.

Gold was in the $1,200s in 2015. Over 11 years, it rose to the $4,800s. About 4x. By comparison, the Nikkei average roughly doubled and the S&P 500 roughly tripled, meaning gold outperformed stock indices.

However, this fourfold ascent was not a straight path. It repeatedly fell and surged, and each time voices rose saying “Gold is over” or “Gold is overbought.”In the 11 years of great rise, countless trials were embeddedin the gold market’s true posture.

From 2015 to 2017, gold was in a long stagnation. A range of about $1,050 to $1,350. The Fed entered a rate-hiking cycle, the dollar strengthened, and gold was hard to buy.

During this period, many EAs faced the “non-trending market” challenge. Trend-following EAs struggled to generate entry signals in range markets, often suffering losses. Conversely, scalper-type EAs relying on volatility found it hard to profit when price moves were small.

Nobunaga Rising Dragon quietly accumulated profits even in this dull 3-year span. Gold’s range market is actually an ideal environment for RSI2 entry conditions. When price nears the range bottom and becomes oversold → RSI2 drops to 10.4 or below → enter → price returns to the range top → take profit. This cycle repeated many times.

The boring 3 years without a clear trend also provided the best environment for those who aim to buy on rebounds.for buy-focused EAs, it was excellentIt allowed steady profits. This was the reason Nobunaga Rising Dragon overcame its first major trial.

In 2018, the market changed. The US–China trade friction intensified, risk-off episodes increased. Gold was bought as a safe asset. In 2019, the Fed pivoted from rate hikes to rate cuts. Gold jumped from around $1,300 to the $1,500s.

The difficulty of this period was volatility shocks. Calm ranges could suddenly shift by tens of dollars due to news. Fixed-interval grid-nanpin EAs were wiped out by such fluctuations.

Nobunaga Rising Dragon’s ATR dynamic grid-nanpin began to show its strength now. When ATR detects rising volatility, nanpin intervals widen automatically. In calmer markets, intervals shrink. By tailoring positions to market conditions, it protected the account while capturing profits during volatility.

After gold surpassed $1,500 in late 2019, many traders rushed to buy. But the 2020 challenge was beyond anyone’s prediction yet.

March 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic collapsed markets worldwide. Gold was not immune. The conventional wisdom that “risk-off buys gold” temporarily failed, and cash demand caused gold to drop to around $1,470 from $1,700—a drop of about $230.

During this period many grid-nanpin EAs disappeared. With fixed-interval nanpin, unrealized losses exploded, margin maintenance collapsed, and many traders were liquidated overnight on social media.

Nobunaga Rising Dragon survived this phase as well. Though the maximum drawdown did expand, it remained within a 12% cap. ATR dynamic nanpin widened entry gaps to detect sudden moves, the spread filter paused orders with abnormal spreads, and the margin stopper guarded the final line of defense. A triple-defense structure functioned at the moment it mattered.

And with the V-shaped recovery that began at the end of March, held positions hit profit-taking levels one after another. From April 2020 onward, gold surged past $2,000 to new historic highs.Only EAs that overcome the greatest trial can enjoy the subsequent greatest profit phase.

From 2021 to 2022, as a side effect of massive monetary easing during the pandemic, inflation accelerated rapidly. US CPI exceeded 9% year-on-year, and the Fed raised interest rates at an exceptional pace in 2022. They lifted policy rates from near 0% to above 5% within a short period.

In theory, rapid rate hikes are a headwind for gold. Real interest rates rise, reducing gold’s appeal that yields no interest. Gold fell from a high near $2,070 to around $1,620, a drop of about $450.

During this period many gold EAs faced tough conditions. In a long downtrend, buy-focused EAs carried unrealized losses. Pessimism like “Gold is done” or “It will return to $1,000” spread widely.

Nobunaga Rising Dragon endured by quietly waiting through the long fall. Entered positions whenever RSI2 reached entry, optimized cost basis with ATR dynamic nanpin, and took profit on rebounds. By catching countless small recoveries, it stayed positive overall.

And by the end of 2022, as the Fed’s pace of rate hikes slowed, gold began to rebound quietly.Surviving the down phase without dying is the condition to seize the next upcycle’s profits.

In 2023, gold entered a new rising cycle. It surpassed $2,070 in May 2023, and then moved to new highs: $2,500, $3,000, $3,500, and $4,000. A once-unseen pace of all-time highs occurred every six months.

In this upcycle many traders warned, “It’s already overbought” or “any drop could come anytime.” Yet gold continued rising with barely any pullbacks, contradicting the selloffs waiting for a dip. It’s a classic bull market where “those waiting will never ride it.”

For Nobunaga Rising Dragon, this phase was“the easiest period to make profits”. RSI2 captured the small pullbacks within the long-term uptrend, many profits were realized through single-entry trades without using nanpin, dramatically increasing win rate. The majority of 11-year net profits were accumulated during 2023–2025.

In 2026, gold reached an unprecedented level around $4,800. Rapid deterioration in Middle East, oil price surge, and renewed energy-driven inflation complexly interacted in a highly unpredictable market.

At around $4,800, daily price range often exceeded $100. Compared with the $1,200 era, a 1% move equated to about four times the monetary value. Even with the same lot size, profit/loss swings were four times greater. This change surpassed many EAs’ design assumptions.

The difference between “auto-adjusting to volatility” EAs and fixed-parameter EAs became most evident now. Fixed-parameter EAs could not adapt to the $4,800 price range with the nanpin intervals optimized for the $1,200 range and were liquidated.

Nobunaga Rising Dragon’s ATR dynamic nanpin automatically tracks relative volatility across price levels. It can build positions with appropriate intervals whether price is in the $1,200s or $4,800s.Design that does not depend on price levelis one reason it functioned for 11 years.

From 2015 to 2026, gold moved from $1,200 to $4,800 in volatility. Nobunaga Rising Dragon did not change its logic during this time. RSI2 entry, ATR dynamic nanpin, and triple safety filters—these designs continued to function as they were for 11 years.

There is an opinion that “if the market changes, the EA should change.” It sounds reasonable, but it’s dangerous. Changing the logic to fit each market means optimizing only for the past few years. When the next market shift comes, adjustments will be required again. It becomes an endless chase.

Truly strong EAs possessa universal logic that works in any market. The phenomenon of short-term oversold and rebound happens whether price is in the $1,000s or the $4,800s. The concept of volatility being relatively large or small is price-level independent. An design built on these universalities can endure without changing logic for 11 years.

11 years later or 20 years later, as long as gold exists, short-term oversold will continue to occur. RSI2 will keep capturing it, and ATR dynamic nanpin will continue to move appropriately with current volatility. The universality of design is the greatest guarantee of long-term persistence.

From 2015’s range market, 2018’s trade frictions, 2020’s Covid shock, 2022’s rapid hikes, 2023–2025’s all-time high rush, to 2026’s geopolitical risk and $4,800 range. Nobunaga Rising Dragon passed through all these market environments using the same logic.

11 years, 22,189 trades, win rate 84.28%, PF 1.93, RF 9.95, max DD 12%. These numbers are not incidental. They are the result of enduring every market environment without collapsing.

You can build an EA with 95% win rate in a 3-year backtest. But if those three years only included a bull market by coincidence, it will vanish in the next bear market.11 years is a duration that inherently includes all market conditions. It has experienced ranges, trends, and sudden movements. Therefore, an EA that survived 11 years of backtesting is highly likely to continue functioning well in year 12 and beyond.

When choosing an EA, one of the most essential questions is, “What year of backtest does it have?” Next time we will explain why we focus on a single currency pair gold. We’ll discuss the rationality of specializing in one-pair trading against the instinct that multi-pair EAs offer diversification.

※This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment solicitation. The performance indicated is historical and does not guarantee future profits. FX/CFD trading involves risk. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.