Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [April 7]

45 日間の停戦計画とマイクロストラテジー社のビットコイン追加購入が市場を牽引

Geopolitical risk relief expectations in the Middle East are positively influencing the cryptocurrency market.

Reports that intermediaries in Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey submitted proposals to the United States and Iran for a 45-day ceasefire and reopening of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz led to a strong market rally on Monday at the start of the week.

Bitcoin daily chart

The Strait of Hormuz transports about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, making it an extremely important航路, and since tensions began to ease in late February 2026, a de facto blockade had persisted; this normalization plan significantly improved investor sentiment.

Additionally, MicroStrategy, the company boasting the largest Bitcoin holdings led by Chairman Michael Saylor, resumed purchases after a one-week pause, contributing to market reassurance.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic environment remains unpredictable.

In the U.S. February employment report, nonfarm payrolls rose by 176,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. This solid labor market data signals economic resilience, but it also strengthens the view that the higher-for-longer stance for interest rates will persist longer than anticipated.

The performance of major assets currently is as follows (over the past 24 hours).

Ethereum daily chart

Bitcoin-related News

■Warning sounded by Google on quantum computing papers

On March 31, 2026, Google released a groundbreaking paper that has sparked a wide discussion. The study suggests that the timeline for quantum computers to potentially crack existing Bitcoin cryptography (such as ECDSA) may move up from the previously forecast 2029.

· Specific threats indicated by the paper: risk of private keys being inferred under certain conditions due to advances in quantum supremacy.

· Community response: developers are accelerating discussions about migrating to post-quantum cryptography (PQC).

· Market reaction: some capital is moving into next-generation tokens that employ quantum-resistant algorithms.

■Less interest in Google Trends

Compared with the last five years, general public interest in cryptocurrency searches has fallen to a low point. This implies a lack of frenzy, but may also indicate a shift from speculative traders to demand-driven and institutional investor activity.

■Strategy shift at U.S. mining giant MARA (formerly Marathon Digital)

North America’s largest miner MARA announced a 15% reduction in its workforce.

·Context: shifting away from pure Bitcoin mining toward an “energy infrastructure business” to meet AI demand.

·Financials: 2025 fiscal year recorded a net loss of about $1.3 billion. To secure funding for debt maturities, more than 15,000 BTC have already been sold, raising concerns about selling pressure from miners weighing on the market.

■Long-term forecast by Willy Woo: gold vs. Bitcoin

Prominent analyst Willy Woo argues the following about asset scarcity.

· Gold: due to advances in mining technology, scarcity is expected to persist for about 15–20 years.

· Bitcoin: overcoming the post-quantum challenge will take 5–10 years, but once overcome, it will become a unique asset.

· Price trajectory: the next 8–12 years could see prices in the five to six figures (hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of dollars), and after 12–16 years a supply shock might trigger a “God candle,” potentially pushing above seven figures (over $1 million).

■MicroStrategy’s finances and sudden additional purchases

· Unrealized losses: In Q1 2026, Bitcoin fell about 23% since the start of the year, resulting in an impairment loss of around $14.5 billion.

· Strategic buying: in the most recent activity, about 4,871 BTC were added, bringing total holdings to over 7.6 million BTC, signaling unwavering bullish sentiment.

■CFTC chairman’s critique of the current regime

An unusual internal remark from the regulator: “Regulators who cannot own cryptocurrency due to ethical rules are people who have never touched the technology, and they are trying to write rules to destroy the industry. This is a betrayal to the people.” The regulator himself argued for a framework that allows actual engagement with the technology.

[Premium subscription information]

In the paid subscription area, we offer even deeper, valuable analysis of individual stocks.

“Bitcoin and Ethereum aren’t enough; invest in the next big profit-generating tokens.”

“Understand the essential flow and future of the crypto market and ensure you catch that wave.”

If this is your view, please consider subscribing. Continuous high-quality research is key to great success.

(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its release in 2016)