[Dollar/Yen Forecast] Is the 159 yen range the ceiling? Target shifts from 158.9 to the upper 157s
Dollar/yen is currently in the mid-159 range.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, from around 152 yen to 160 yen the price has been rising, retraced once to around 158.2, and is now back to the 159 yen area again.
At first glance, the uptrend still seems to be continuing. But I view this area as the top.
Why I see it as the top
It only briefly rose into the 160s but could not sustain it and was knocked back. The rebound afterward also stalled in the upper 159s.
The upside momentum is weakening. The price struggles to set new highs and pulls back. This is a common pattern in a top zone.
Moreover, this level is priced in a way that invites verbal and actual intervention. When weighing the risk of chasing higher against the reward if it breaks down, the shorts are far more efficient.
Targets
The near-term target for now is158.9around. This level also reacted to the recent drop.
If 158.9 is clearly broken, the next target is157 and a half yen. This is the main target.
Strategy
Longs from here are high risk. In a top zone, even if it goes up, the price move is limited, while the downside when it collapses can be large.
What I’m aiming for is a mean-reversion sell (short on retracements).
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