Rather than the technique to enter, the technique to pass over. Decide in advance with Gold.
XAUUSD / No-Trade Rule / Gonzo View
Rather than the technique to enter, the technique to pass.
Decide in advance what to do before Gold movements
Before deciding "where to enter," decide "when not to enter."
We整理 (organize) the conditions to pass to keep your judgment from collapsing.
Last time,we organized what to look at and what not to look atas the next step, we will具体化 (specify) how to decide whether to participate today or to pass.
On days when Gold moves, there is a tendency to focus on "where to enter."
However, to stabilize judgment, the first necessity isto have ways to pass before having entry条件so to speak.
This time, I will整理 (organize) the "pass条件" I first decide on the day I look at Gold.
First conclusion
- What is decided first is not "how to enter" but "what would make me not enter"
- Having pass conditions actually speeds up the decision
- Entry条件 and pass条件 should be kept as a set
Why decide "pass conditions before entering"
On days with large price moves, you can justify it afterward in many ways.
Reasons like "it may extend one more move," "the pullback is shallow, so the move is strong," or "news is strong, so I should ride it" increase the reasons to enter.
That is exactly why what is needed isto decide in advance the situation in which you will not participateWithout this, judgments tend to move with emotions rather than the market.
The "pass conditions" I decide in advance
On the day I look at Gold, my initial pass conditions are as follows:
- After a one-sided move has run its course, there is no整理 (recovery) or consolidation, only a continued rise
- Even when returning to an important price level, the reaction is weak and direction cannot be confirmed
- It broke once, but immediately returns to the original band and the structure collapses
- On the timeframe I watch, there is momentum, but higher timeframe整理 is not aligned
- Feeling pulled by the screen speed more than by my own scenario
In such a state, it is better not to participate, as results will be more stable.
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Scenes to pass
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Things that happen when forcing action
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Having pass conditions makes judgments faster
Having pass conditions often leads people to think it will slow them down due to increased caution.
In reality, however, the opposite is true: if the decision "I won't do this in this shape" is decided first, the number of candidates is greatly reduced, so the remaining judgments are faster.
Not assuming you will do everything, buteliminating the scenarios where you won't act and then focusing only on the remaining onesimproves the quality of trading.
Gonzo thinking is to hold "entry条件" and "do-not-enter条件" as a pair
When I think through a logic or design a display or辅助 (support) system, I believe you should hold both "this condition that you will use" and "this condition that you will not use" simultaneously.
Without this,
- the design becomes blurred trying to cover all scenes
- the部分 that runs automatically and the part that stops by humans mix
- explanations of how to use become ambiguous
- it's easy to later make excuses for poor results
Therefore, in both design and operation, you cannot omit the "do-not-use条件".
People who should especially have pass conditions first
- People who tend to chase on fast-moving days
- People who feel they must act when news comes out
- People whose automated and manual decision boundaries are blurry
- People who tend to add reasons after a loss
Just having do-not-enter conditions before the enter技術 (entry technique) makes the approach far more robust.
Three key points of this article
- What you decide first are the pass conditions, not the entry conditions
- If pass scenarios are clear, remaining judgments become faster
- In design and operation, hold both "conditions to use" and "conditions not to use" as a pair
Summary
On days when markets are turbulent, what you do can become less important than what you do not do.
Simply deciding pass conditions in advance can significantly reduce decision-making noise.
Related reads
This discussion connects to the first article about what to look at and what not to look at.
First organize what you will look at, then decide what would make you not act. Looking in this order makes judgments quite stable.