Translate the following HTML to English, preserving the HTML format, no markdown code blocks, no line breaks break, and decode entities before translation: Original: 【ドル円】160円台突入で介入警戒レベルへ｜ロングよりショートに優位性がある理由 Decoded/translated: 【Dollar/Yen】Entering the
In the final week of March 2026, USD/JPY finally moved into the 160s. It broke the recent highs on Friday, effectively surpassing a key level.
Many people may be thinking, “If it keeps rising, I want to buy.” However, I believe long positions from this level carry very high risk.
This time I will explain the reasons and the notable points for next week.
The 160-yen range is an "intervention zone"
The 160 yen level for USD/JPY is a level at which the Ministry of Finance has previously spoken about intervention and even intervened with real action.
Currency intervention is not announced in advance. One day it can be pushed down by several pips. Now that we are at the 160 level, you should always be conscious that this risk is always nearby.
Especially if you are holding long positions at this level, the moment intervention occurs you could face hundreds of pips of unrealized losses in an instant. There is also a high risk of slippage on stops.
Reasons I am watching for a shift toward a stronger yen
Technically and fundamentally, I believe there will be a turn toward yen strength at some point.
The current rise is indeed strong, but this “everyone is looking higher” situation often foreshadows a reversal. From my 12 years of trading experience, markets that tilt too one way always experience a mean reversal.
That’s why I judge that at this level a short bias has a higher edge than longs. The potential upside for longs is overwhelmingly limited compared to shorts.
Notable scenarios for Monday at the start of the week
What I am especially watching for next Monday is an “gap open.”
If the market starts with an upward gap (up gap), I believe this is more likely to be a ceiling signal. A surge in buying creates the gap, followed by a pullback.
If we can confirm an up gap followed by a pullback, it could present a good short-entry opportunity.
Conversely, if it climbs gradually without a gap, there may be a little more room on the upside, but in any case, taking new longs at this level should be approached with caution.
What’s important is whether you can wait
In such situations, the most important thing is not to force a position.
The feeling of “I don’t want to miss out” can lead to the most dangerous trades. Follow your rules firmly and only enter when there is a clear edge. Next week will be a week where that judgment will be tested.
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