The false report of Gasoline 350 yen. Even if crude oil doubles, prices do not double

Gasoline prices are not determined solely by the price of crude oil.

In fact, they include

• the cost of crude oil purchase
• refining costs
• distribution costs
• taxes such as gasoline tax and consumption tax

.

Generally, the share of crude-related costs (procurement + refining) in the retail price isabout 60–70%The rest consists of relatively fixed parts such as taxes and distribution costs.

Gasoline contains a substantial amount of taxes.With Gasoline Tax (53.8 yen) and Petroleum and Coal Tax (2.8 yen) totaling about 56 yen, plus consumption tax, effectively more than about one-third of the price is tax.Additionally, there used to be an interim tax rate for the abolished gasoline tax (about 25.1 yen), which brought the rate above 40% at times. The heavy tax burden itself acts as a sort of cushion that prevents crude price spikes from being passed directly to the shelf price.

For example, when the on-site price is 150 yen, the base price isabout 95 yen.

Therefore, even if crude oil price doubles, gasoline price does not necessarily double.

For example, if crude pricerises from $60 to $120, consider the scenario.

Estimates by specialist institutions (e.g., Nomura Research Institute) indicate roughly “crude oil up 30% → gasoline up 25–30%” as a rule of thumb.

Even if crude doubles, gasoline price increases tend to be around50–70%in many cases.

Specifically, when gasoline is at 150 yen and crude doubles, the shelf price would be around210–230 yenas a guideline.

Extremely high figures such as “350 yen” often come from simplistic calculations that ignore taxes and distribution costs, and in realistic expert estimates the upper limit is closer toaround 240 yen.

In other words, crude price increases and gasoline price do not move in perfect lockstep.

Japan’s price structure, where taxes occupy a large share, also functions as a buffer absorbing part of the crude price shock.

Of course, if regional tensions in the Middle East or risks to the Strait of Hormuz intensify, prices could exceed 200 yen.

However,the scenario “crude oil rises → immediately in the 300 yen range”is quite limited.

Sensational figures tend to attract more attention, after all.

While some YouTubers may do so, there is some skepticism about reporting that excessively emphasizes extreme numbers even on public broadcasting.