Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [March 3]

1. Increasing Tensions in the Middle East and the Dynamism of the Cryptocurrency Market

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the cryptocurrency market remains buoyant, with many major altcoins showing strong gains and a very positive start to the week.

Immediately after reports of Israel’s strikes on Iran, the market’s flagship asset, Bitcoin (BTC), briefly fell to around $63,000, triggering a ripple of unease among investors. However, it quickly rebounded dramatically, briefly breaking above $67,000. Intraday trading continued to push higher, with the price hitting a peak of $71,000 at times.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

Looking at the latest 24 hours, Bitcoin rose about 5% $69,000

Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) gained roughly 4% ETH rose to $2,050 SOL reached around $87 Binance Coin (BNB) also rose about 3%

Coingecko data shows the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies expanded by 3.5% $2.043 trillion

Behind this rebound is a severe military confrontation. Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel coordinated a series of intense airstrikes against Iran. Reports indicated the deaths of several government officials, including Iran’s top leader, sparking panic selling in the market. Iran has also retaliated against neighboring U.S. allies, and concerns that the conflict could widen into a broader regional war remain.

In this unstable environment, traditional safe-haven assets moved significantly. After market close on Friday, gold rose 2.3% Silver surged an astonishing 13.1% 8.5% driven by traders halting cargoes through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about supply disruptions.

Looking at the top 100 by market cap, most digital assets have posted gains in the past 24 hours.

Notably, Near Protocol (NEAR) jumped 14% Morph (MORPHO) rose and ENA rose 10% signaling a risk-on mood across the market.

2. Bitcoin Holders in Distress and Cooled Market Sentiment

Prices are rebounding, but investor sentiment remains harsh. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant’s latest data show that about 46%

In concrete terms, around 9.09 million

Last week, prices briefly returned to the $680,000

Additionally, when the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader was officially announced, Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $68,000 15 $100 billion

The Fear & Greed Index, signaling current market sentiment, shows a reading of 14

While Bitcoin price hovers around $67,320

Nevertheless, large-scale investors remain bullish. MicroStrategy recently disclosed a new purchase at around $67777 2,240 $240 million 720,737 $54.8 billion $49.6 billion $75,985

3. Ethereum’s Current State and Outlook: Developments and Whale Activity

On Ethereum (ETH), the mood is somewhat pessimistic. In 2026, ETH price has fallen 36% $3,000

Decentralized exchanges (DEX) have seen a 55%

Ethereum Daily Chart

Nevertheless, the ecosystem’s foundational strengths remain robust.

· TheCombined TVL (Etherum Core + Layer 2) accounts for 65%

· Founder Vitalik Buterin is focusing on introducing ZK-EVM (privacy-enhanced) and improving underlying scalability.

· Ongoing development toward resistance against quantum computing, a future threat, is progressing steadily.

Meanwhile, Vitalik’s personal asset movements are drawing market attention. He has been consistently selling ETH, with recent totals reaching 17,196 ¥54.6 billion 16,384 8.6

By contrast, mining equipment giant Bitmain has taken a bullish stance, making additional purchases of 50,928 $1.31 billion 4,473,587 $91 billion $86 million 3,040,483 $62 billion

4. 2026 Market Cycle and the Rise of Real-World Assets (RWA)

VanEck’s CEO described the current market as a bottoming process. 2026 will be the fourth year of Bitcoin’s halving cycle, showing a historical pattern of “three years up, four years down (correction).”

On the other hand, renowned analyst Willy Woo expects a return to a substantial bull market only after the first quarter of 2027, suggesting many holders are currently in loss and should tread carefully.

In this environment, tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is gaining attention. Santiment’s research shows several projects ranking highly for development activity.

RWA Rankings:

· Hedera (HBAR)

· Chainlink (LINK)

· Avalanche (AVAX)

In particular, Ethereum-based RWA markets have achieved remarkable growth, reaching a market size of around $150 billion 58%

ARKM Research reports that assets like PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tezos Gold (XAUT) provide investors with the security of physical gold backing and the liquidity inherent to digital assets. As traditional financial assets trade on the blockchain, they increasingly serve as a safe haven for investors seeking stability.

Additionally, real-world payments are accelerating. MetaMask and Mastercard recently launched a virtual currency payment card in the United States, enabling users to pay directly from their wallets at participating stores.

Moreover, payments giant Stripe reached a corporate valuation of $159 billion 50%

However, market transparency remains a challenge. On-chain analyst ZachXBT has raised concerns about insider trading at Axiom. Prediction market Kalshi disclosed two fraudulent trades, resulting in penalties. As markets mature, strengthening surveillance becomes urgent.

5. Expanding Global Money Supply and Inflationary Pressures

On the macro front, the world’s broad money supply (M2, etc.) grew by 13.6 $144 trillion

In the long run, the scale is extraordinary.

Money Supply Analysis:

· Since 2000, global money supply has increased by a cumulative $118 trillion

· The 25-year CAGR stands at a high 7.0%

· Since the 2020 pandemic, currencies have been supplied at an extraordinary pace, increasing by $44 trillion

The sharpest rise occurred in February 2021 with an annual increase of 18.7%

Excluding extraordinary crisis periods, there has never been a time in recorded human history when global money multiplied so rapidly. This excess liquidity amplifies asset price volatility and complexity.

6. Domestic Developments in Japan: Financial Services Agency Investigations and the “Sanae Token” Controversy

In Japan, a serious trouble involving politics and cryptocurrency has emerged. The Financial Services Agency is considering launching investigations into the issuer of the crypto asset “SANAE TOKEN” (Sanae Token) associated with Prime Minister Sanae Takashi.

This affair began last month when a influencer named Misaki (Mizoguchi) claimed he had obtained permission from the Takashi administration to issue the token. Following the announcement, buyers rushed in and the price surged. This month, Prime Minister Takashi publicly denied any involvement on X (formerly Twitter), stating that she had heard nothing of such matters and was not involved. In response, Mizoguchi faced panic and the token price plummeted sharply.

[Paid subscription information]

In the paid subscription area, we offer more in-depth, high-value analysis of individual stocks.

“Bitcoin and Ethereum alone won’t be the endgame; I want to invest in the next big profitable token.”

“I want to grasp the fundamental flow and future of the cryptocurrency market and confidently ride that wave.”

If you think this way, please consider subscribing. Consistently high-quality research is the key to great success.

(This report has, since its inception in2016, always delivered market-leading insights)