Current State of the Crypto Market and Trends of Major Currencies

The cryptocurrency market failed to sustain the temporary rebound seen last week, and this week started on a soft note with prices drifting lower. As of Monday, February 16, the price of Bitcoin (BTC is hovering around $67,500).

Bitcoin Daily Chart

This corresponds to about a 2% decline from the previous day, and a 1.7% drop over the past week. Early this morning there were moments when it briefly returned to the milestone of $70,000, but the momentum did not continue and it was pushed back down.

Since the first week of February when it briefly corrected to $60,000, Bitcoin has mostly traded within a narrow range of $68,000 to $70,000. Trading volume over the past 24 hours remains around $40 billion, indicating liquidity is not low, but there is a lack of decisive catalysts to move the market strongly.

For major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), there has been a 3% drop in the past 24 hours and a 3.5% decline on the weekly chart, making the outlook more challenging than Bitcoin.

Ethereum Daily Chart

The overall cryptocurrency market cap declined about 2% over the past 24 hours, shrinking to around $2.39 trillion. Most of the top 10 by market cap recorded modest declines for the day.

Among them, TRON (TRX) was the lone exception, showing a slight uptick and becoming a standout; meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) fell by 7.5% over the past 24 hours, the largest decline among major currencies.

However, on a weekly basis, Dogecoin still shows about a 7% gain, suggesting that the pullback may be contained in the short term. While some coins show resilience, many analysts still point out that there is no strong conviction about the market’s direction.

Looking at ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds), SoSoValue data shows that last week’s spot Bitcoin ETF experienced net outflows of $360 million. This is broadly in line with the outflows of the previous week, underscoring investors’ cautious stance. As of February 13, total net assets reached $87 billion. Additionally, the spot Ethereum ETF saw weekly outflows of $161.2 million, bringing its total net assets to $11.7 billion.

Macro Economy and Regulatory Developments

On the macro front, revised U.S. employment data has kept the market wary. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, February 13, that annual job creations in 2025 were only 181,000, far below the projected 584,000 and well under the 1.46 million in 2024. This sharp downward revision signals a cooling labor market.

Such a significant downward revision strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to hurry with rate cuts or to widen the cut size per meeting in order to prevent a recession. Typically, rate cuts favor risk assets like cryptocurrencies, but concerns about the broader economic slowdown weigh on the market at the same time.

On the regulatory front, there are positive signals as well. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated in a CNBC interview on Friday that Congress should advance a "CLARITY Act" to clearly define federal regulations for digital assets. Clearer regulations are expected to create a more secure environment for institutional investors to participate in the market.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, which reflects current market sentiment, stands at 8 (Extreme Fear), indicating investor psychology is extremely冷. The current Bitcoin price is around $70,166, but numerically it indicates a state of “oversold” or excessive pessimism.

Trends Among Major Financial Institutions and Platforms

Public disclosure of a large crypto investment by Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs, a major U.S. financial firm, disclosed a cryptocurrency investment portfolio totaling $2.36 billion. The breakdown is as follows:

· Bitcoin: $1.1 billion

· Ethereum: $1.0 billion

· XRP: $53 million

· Solana: $80 million

While this accounts for a small 0.33% of the firm’s total assets under management, the fact that a major U.S. financial institution is actively holding select major currencies underscores that cryptocurrencies are beginning to be incorporated into traditional financial assets.

Planned implementation of "Smart Tags" on X (formerly Twitter)

The social platform X, led by Elon Musk, plans to implement “Smart Tags” for cryptocurrency and stock trading within a few weeks. This feature will allow 550 million users to complete information gathering and actual trading on X without moving to external exchange apps.

This is expected to bring trillions of yen in new capital inflows, but it may also lead to increased volatility from price swings driven by information on social media, and regulatory authorities are expected to tighten oversight. The shift toward seamless trading of both stocks and cryptocurrencies suggests that these assets are no longer special and are becoming part of everyday financial infrastructure.

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(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its inception in 2016)

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [February 18]