Brexit-related vote in the UK, Day 3! – Highlights and schedule for March 14 –

This morning, Parliament held a vote to determine whether to proceed with a no-deal Brexit. The result was 312 to 308, a margin of four votes, so a no-deal Brexit was avoided. It was surprising that it was avoided by such a narrow margin, but the pound has risen on relief that no-deal was averted. Pound-yen moved up from the 147 level to the upper 148s, about 2 yen higher.

Meanwhile, as the UK Parliament focused on the vote, President Trump stated that he would not rush a trade deal with China. This seemed to signal risk in the U.S.-China relationship, and USD/JPY fell.

◎ Today's Highlights

1) Vote on extending Brexit deadline

In this morning’s UK Parliament vote, a no-deal Brexit was avoided by 312 to 308. However, given the pre-vote consensus that a comfortable margin would secure avoidance, a four-vote difference was unexpected.

With no-deal Brexit avoided, Parliament will vote today on extending the Brexit deadline. The consensus supports extending the deadline, but given this morning’s events, nothing is certain. Additionally, opposition parties may propose a vote of no confidence or a second referendum.

Even if today’s vote results in an extension, it must be agreed by the EU27 at the EU Summit on the 21st. So, attention should be paid to statements from EU leaders.

Please also refer to the following↓↓↓

Brexit Plan Rejected! A Review of the Past and Points of Focus Ahead!

2) U.S.-China relations

Yesterday, President Trump stated that the U.S. would not hurry a trade deal with China. U.S.-China trade talks have not yet yielded an agreement. It seems unlikely there will be a sudden breakdown, but it remains a concern.

After yesterday’s remarks, the dollar weakened against the yen and risk-off sentiment increased. If similar remarks or threats of a breakdown recur, it could trigger risk-off yen buying and selling of the Australian dollar. In China, the National People’s Congress is ongoing through the 15th. We should monitor U.S.-China relations closely.

◎ Today's Economic Calendar

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (Day 1)

Thursday, March 14

11:00　CNY　China Industrial Production

16:00　EUR　Germany HICP (Consumer Price Index)

16:45　EUR　France HICP (Consumer Price Index)

17:30　SEK　Sweden Unemployment Rate

20:00　USD　OPEC Monthly Report

21:30　USD　Import Price Index

21:30　CAD　New Housing Price Index

23:00　USD　New Home Sales

Friday, March 15

04:00　GBPUK Parliament Vote on Brexit Extension (Scheduled)

06:30　NZDNZ PMI

07:50　CADWillkins, Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada, Speech

Around 12:00　JPY　Bank of Japan Policy Rate Announcement

15:30　JPYKuroda, BOJ Governor, Press Conference