Can we avoid a no-deal Brexit? ～ Key points and schedule for March 13 ～
From yesterday to this morning, the pound fluctuated wildly on remarks related to the vote on the withdrawal agreement. As a result, the vote was a massive defeat with 391 votes against, 242 votes for, a margin of 149. However, considering that the January vote was 230 votes, it seems to have somewhat improved.
Perhaps the market felt the same, as the pound rallied on buying, but ultimately it ended up in a tug-of-war and closed flat.
◎ Today’s Points of Focus
1) Vote on “No-Deal” Brexit
Today, a vote is scheduled on whether there will be no deal with Brexit. Yesterday, the pound swung wildly on remarks from UK and EU officials.
The consensus is that the no-deal Brexit will be rejected, but if by any chance it passes, the pound would likely be sold off sharply. Also, even if rejected, proposals such as a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister May or a second referendum may arise.
Some believe that if “no deal” is rejected today, a vote on extending the Brexit deadline may follow. Others think there may be no extension at all. The situation is unpredictable.
Be cautious of sudden moves and widening spreads, maintain ample stop levels, and manage funds carefully to survive.
2) U.S.-China Relations
Robert Lighthizer, United States Trade Representative
“We hope these negotiations will be in the final weeks, but there are still major
These remarks have surfaced. Hidden behind the UK Brexit saga, U.S.-China talks continue. If there is no agreement, it is highly likely to impact not only China but also AUD and NZD. It is a material to watch.
◎ Today’s Economic Calendar
Wednesday, March 13
08:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
17:00 EUR Spain HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices)
18:00 EUR Italy Unemployment Rate
19:30 EUR Industrial Production
21:30 USD durable goods orders
23:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, March 14
02:00 USD 30-year Bond Auction
02:00 EURECB President Draghi Speech
04:00 GBPUK Parliament Approval Vote on No-Deal Brexit (Scheduled)
11:00 CNY China Industrial Production
