Votes on Brexit deal the day before... Focusing on the pound! ~ Points of interest and schedule for March 11 ~

Since yesterday, the United States moved to daylight saving time, so trading hours and the timing of North American economic indicators have also changed. However, Europe and the United Kingdom are still on standard time, so their times have not changed. The irregular schedule makes this something to watch carefully.

Last week, despite the ECB turning dovish, stock prices fell. Even after the U.S. jobs report was released, stocks declined. It became a risk-off flow driven by dollar and yen buying. This week, it will be important to see whether the risk-off trend continues.

◎ Today’s Points of Focus

1) Elevated Dollar

Despite weak employment data last week, the risk-off flow from global stock declines has pushed the dollar higher. The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s level, is approaching a high level that has been capped since last autumn. Will it break out from here, or will it pull back again this time as well? Attention is warranted.

Today's data includes retail sales, but there is a possibility that government shutdown effects will emerge. There is a high likelihood of significantly weak results, and conversely, a positive surprise could push the dollar higher, breaking the dollar index to rise. Pay attention.

Dollar Index Chart

2) Brexit-Related

This week is a critical one for Britain's future. With the final vote on the withdrawal agreement looming tomorrow, various speculations are circulating. Statements from officials and headlines can move the pound substantially.

Currently, the consensus is that the withdrawal agreement on day 12 was rejected → the no-deal withdrawal plan on day 13 was rejected → the postponement of the withdrawal deadline on day 14 was approved.

However, a concern remains: even if postponement is approved, will the EU accept it satisfactorily? And if postponement is accepted, how long will the extension last? This is a point of interest.

Furthermore, if postponement is granted and the situation remains as a stalemate, there could be another push toward a no-deal Brexit after renegotiations. I think this is part of the reason for last week’s pound selling.

Watch whether these expectations change on official remarks and headlines.

◎ Today’s Economic Event Schedule

Monday, March 11

U.S. Daylight Saving Time starts

Eurogroup Finance Ministers Meeting

16:00 NOK Norwegian CPI (Consumer Price Index)

16:00 TRY Turkish GDP

21:30 USDRetail Sales

22:00 GBPHaskel External Boc Speaker

Tuesday, March 12

02:00 USD 3-Year Auction

09:30 AUD Housing Loans / NAB Business Confidence Index