Virtual Currency Market Analysis [January 28]
January 2026: Structural Changes in the Financial Markets and Trials for Crypto Assets
1. Market Overview: Bitcoin Stagnation and Return to "Traditional Assets"
In the past week, the financial markets presented a very harsh testing ground for Bitcoin (BTC). BTC posted a weekly decline of 7.8%. This underperformed major stock indices such as the Nasdaq-100 (+0.6%) and the S&P 500 (-0.1%), as well as the bond market.
Bitcoin Chart
The Fear & Greed Index, which indicates investor sentiment, fell to 29, and fear remains pervasive in the market. The momentum for “buying the dips” that characterized previous bull markets has faded, and many traders have not abandoned a cautious stance.
Behind gold’s continued outperformance is rapidly deteriorating international political tensions and growing concern over currency depreciation (debasement trade). In particular, on the predictive market Polymarket, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31 jumped from about 9% a few days earlier to a staggering 81%. The risk of this political vacuum is driving investors toward tangible assets with solid backing.
2. Historic Surge in Gold and Silver: A $35 Trillion Market Cap Shock
Gold Chart
In January alone, gold surged an unprecedented 17, reaching an all-time high of $5,080 per ounce. Market participants rushed into gold not only due to concerns about government shutdowns but also because of broader geopolitical tensions.
Trump’s escalated pressure to raise tariffs on Europe and Asia intensified global trade frictions, which proved decisive.
As a result, gold’s market capitalization reached an astronomical $35 trillion, while silver’s market cap hit a record-high of $6 trillion.
Astonishingly, the combined value of gold and silver is about nine times Nvidia’s current market capitalization, which epitomizes how capital flows have shifted dramatically from high-tech stocks—the “intangible expectations”—to physical precious metals with tangible value.
3. Sectoral Trends in the Crypto Asset Market: The Divide Between Real Assets and Non-Real Assets
While the market cooled overall, not all coins were sold uniformly. Each sector showed clear differentiation.
・Mining Companies: Despite a drop in the spot Bitcoin price, mining-related equities held up relatively well. This reflects a “delayed response” where stock prices react after the Bitcoin price moves. Additionally, investors moved funds into mining-related firms with infrastructure rather than directly holding highly volatile spot assets, seeking to reduce risk.
・RWA (Real World Assets) Dominance: In this market turmoil, RWAs have been the clear “winners.” The tokenization of real-world assets like real estate and U.S. Treasuries on the blockchain provided a sense of backing and stability as markets grew unstable. Capital has flowed from speculative meme coins and altcoins toward RWAs that generate steady revenue.
・Tight Corrections in AI and Growth Sectors: Previously driving market enthusiasm, AI-related stocks and cutting-edge tech sectors like modular blockchain faced aggressive selling pressure.
Notably, some stocks fell nearly 20% or more, revealing the vulnerability of optimistic, “buy the dip” picks in a risk-off environment.
4. ETF Flows and Altcoins in Reversal
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (physical ETFs) recorded net outflows of $1.33 billion in the week ending January 23, the largest weekly outflow since February 2025.
Institutions appear to be temporarily reducing positions, moving funds into cash or gold.
・Ethereum ETF: Outflows of $611 million during the same period, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty more than expectations for smart contract platforms.
・Solana (SOL) and XRP ETFs: Contrary to the broader market, they showed surprising resilience. In particular, SOL-related products saw $9.6 million inflows, indicating some investors hold strong conviction in certain Layer-1 projects.
5. On-Chain Activity Truths and the Rise of Layer 2
With President Trump’s tariff policy shift, Bitcoin briefly dropped nearly 10% this week, yet on-chain data showed unusual movements: Ethereum mainnet activity surged.
However, researchers warn that increases in active addresses and transactions may be distorted not by genuine user activity but by tactics such as dusting attacks and address poisoning campaigns, where scammers flood networks with worthless tokens to contaminate transaction histories and mislead users. A calm, discerning approach is required to avoid being misled by numerical hype.
On the positive side, Coinbase’s Layer 2 solution “Base” is growing.
This week, Base’s on-chain activity surged, and its weekly decentralized exchange (DEX) volume surpassed both the Ethereum mainnet and BNB Smart Chain (BSC) for the first time, signaling that Layer 2 has become mainstream as a solution to scalability issues.
Paid Subscription Information
In the paid subscription area, we offer deeper, high-value analysis of individual assets.
“Bitcoin and Ethereum aren’t the end; I want to invest in the next big profit-generating assets.”
“I want to understand the fundamental trends and future of the crypto market and ride that wave with confidence.”
If this is your view, please consider subscribing. Consistent, high-quality research is the key to great success.
(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its initial release in2016, continuously bringing the latest market insights)
× ![]()
