"Prices are not moving in the direction of where you want to go"

Many people think

“Prices rise because they want to go higher.”

“Prices fall because they want to go lower.”

That’s what they think.

But the actual movement

is completely different from that.

Prices are —

not moving in the direction they “want” to go.

They are being moved to a place they “must” reach.

What is that place?

That is

the price range where orders have piled up.

・A large number of stop losses

・Limit orders

・Stop-loss orders

・Position imbalances

Where these accumulate becomes a market’s “fuel tank.”

Because there is fuel,

the price will be driven to that level to some extent.

Direction is retrofitted afterward.

Reasons are explained afterward.

What comes first is,

“Whether there are orders to be recovered”

That’s all.

Therefore,

“Because of the trend, it extended”

“Because it broke through, it ran”

In many moments where it seems so,

the reality is

“It only had to go to that price.”

That is often the case.

Here, there is one more important perspective.

That is,

Prices always choose the most efficient route

— the path that can process the most orders with the least effort.

Along that path,

individual stop losses are stepped on,

counter-trend positions are culled,

and trend-followers become skeptical.

And quietly,

they return to the original direction.

If you don’t understand this structure,

you’ll be cut at the same place many times,

and keep thinking, “My judgment is bad.”

But in reality,

it’s not a judgment issue. It’s a positioning issue.

In the next discussion,

how should you think about that “positioning.”

From a perspective opposite to textbooks,

we’ll go one step further.

? Next episode teaser (Episode 14)

“The moment you feel you should enter here is the most dangerous.”